000 AXNT20 KNHC 061009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 31.6N 81.6W at 06/0900 UTC or 40 nm SW of Savannah Georgia, moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Over area forecast waters, winds to tropical storm force are impacting areas N of 29N and W of 79W, along with seas of 11 to 13 ft. A broader area of strong winds and rough seas is impacting waters N of 27N and W of 75W. Several rainbands with strong convection are noted within this area of strong winds and rough seas. Debby is moving slowly and is expected to continue moving very slowly over the next several days, bringing torrential rains and a threat of major flooding over portions of the SE U.S. Please consult forecasts and warnings from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for details. Also, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Nearby convection is primarily related to the monsoon trough, described in the section below. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from the Virgin Islands to Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over much of the eastern Caribbean Sea in association with this wave. Behind the axis of the wave, a zone of strong E winds and rough seas is also occurring. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves W over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week, as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea or into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N30W 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both of these features, mainly S of 17N. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave presently in the eastern Caribbean that has a low chance of tropical formation over the southern Gulf later this week. Tropical Storm Debby is now well NE of the area over eastern Georgia and will continue moving away from the region today. Strong W to NW winds and rough seas N of 27N and E of 85W will diminish today. Weak high pressure over the remainder of the waters is leading to moderate or less winds with seas of 2 to 5 ft. No significant convection is occurring at this time. For the forecast, as high pressure becomes more dominant, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail for the rest of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection associated with a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, the eastward extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along 10N in the SW basin and is leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection S of 12N near Panama and Colombia. Away from the influence of the tropical wave, moderate to fresh winds are ongoing N of the monsoon trough, except in the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are present, lowest in the Lee of Cuba. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, slow development of the previously mentioned tropical wave is possible early this week, before environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week in the western Caribbean Sea. Strong winds will follow the wave as it moves across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information of Tropical Storm Debby, located inland over eastern Georgia. The center of Debbie should remain north of area waters, but impacts of wind, high seas, and rain will continue offshore NE Florida for the next few days. Aside from Debby, subsidence from the Bermuda-Azores ridge and dry Saharan Air Layer/dust is precluding significant convection through the basin. A modest trade-wind regime dominates, with mainly gentle to moderate E winds, except pockets of locally fresh trades just N of the Antilles. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby will remain inland near 31.6N 81.0W this afternoon, 31.7N 79.9W Wed morning, and 31.9N 79.4W Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Debbie will be offshore near 32.3N 79.5W Thu morning, 33.1N 79.9W Thu afternoon, then move inland again near 34.1N 80.1W Fri morning. Debby will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Virginia early Sat. Strong to near-gale S winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 27N and W of 73W through Thu night, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast today. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late week. $$ Konarik