000 AXNT20 KNHC 061653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 31.9N 81.0W at 06/1500 UTC or 10 nm S of Savannah Georgia, moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Over area forecast waters, winds up to tropical storm force are impacting areas N of 29N and W of 77W, along with seas of 11 to 14 ft. A broader area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas is impacting waters N of 28N and W of 76W. Several rainbands with embedded moderate convection are noted within this area of strong winds and rough seas. Debby is moving slowly and is expected to continue moving very slowly over the next several days, bringing torrential rains and a threat of major flooding over portions of the SE U.S. Please consult forecasts and warnings from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for details. Also, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 17N to 06N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is analyzed from 15N to 07N between 17W and 23W. A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 16N southward to about 04N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is depicted near this wave generally between 10N and 06N between 38W and 44W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from the Mona Passage to Venezuela, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of this wave along with moderate to fresh winds. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves W over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week, as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea or into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues west-southwestward to near 09N45W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N45W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 08N to 05N between 25W and 35W. Another area of scattered showers is noted along the ITCZ between 11N and 06N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean that has a low chance of tropical formation later this week. Tropical Storm Debby is now well NE of the area over eastern Georgia and will continue moving away from the region today. A diurnal surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from near 22N90W southwestward to the Mexican coast near 18N94W, and is leading to the development of scattered moderated convection in the vicinity of the trough and also near Veracruz. Otherwise, high pressure is favors gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. Seas in the northeast Gulf are still roughly 4 to 7 feet, with seas across the much of the remaining basin generally on the order of 2 to 4 feet. An area of scattered showers and isolated convection is depicted from the Louisiana coast southward to about 28N between 90W and 92W. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas offshore northern Florida in association with Debby will diminish today, as a surface ridge builds into the region. As the ridge becomes more dominant, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail for the rest of the week. A tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean has a low potential of tropical development late this week in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection associated with a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, the eastward extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along 10N in the SW basin, and is leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection S of 15N and west of 74W near Panama and Colombia. Away from the influences of the tropical wave and the aforementioned convection, scatterometer measurements depict gentle to moderate winds ongoing N of the monsoon trough, except in the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are present. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across much of the Caribbean, except for the NW basin where seas are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, any development of the tropical wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the central Caribbean. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean. Strong winds and moderate seas will follow the wave as it moves across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby, located inland over eastern Georgia. The center of Debbie should remain north of the area, but impacts of wind, high seas, and rain will continue offshore NE Florida for the next few days. Aside from Debby, subsidence from the Bermuda-Azores high and dry Saharan Air Layer/dust is precluding significant convection through the basin. A surface trough is analyzed near 28N64W southwestward to near 22N68W, with scattered showers observed near the trough. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the basin, with the exception of the Canary Islands where pockets of moderate to fresh, locally strong winds are observed between the islands. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across much of the Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Debby will move to 32.0N 80.2W this evening, 32.2N 79.4W Wed morning, 32.6N 79.3W Wed evening, inland to 33.2N 79.6W Thu morning, inland to 34.2N 79.9W Thu evening, and inland to 35.7N 79.6W Fri morning. Debby will weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near 40.2N 75.3W by early Sat. Strong to near-gale S winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 28N and W of 75W through Thu night, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast today. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late week. $$ BA