000 AXNT20 KNHC 070012 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 7 2024 Updated for 0000 UTC Advisory on Tropical Storm Debby Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 31.8N 80.6W at 06/0000 UTC or 30 nm SE of Savannah Georgia, moving ENE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Winds up to tropical storm force are impacting areas north of 30N and west of 78W. A broader area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas is impacting waters north of 28N and west of 76W. Several rainbands with embedded moderate convection are noted within this area of strong winds and rough seas. Debby is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday morning. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday while Debby drifts offshore. Debby will produce torrential rains and a threat of major flooding over portions of the SE U.S. Please consult forecasts and warnings from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for details. Also, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 06N to 17N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is analyzed from 07N to 15N between 20W and 28W. A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted between 06N and 10N between 39W and 47W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 09N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of this wave along with moderate to fresh winds. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues west-southwestward to near 09N45W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N45W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 20W and 30W. Another area of scattered showers is noted along the ITCZ between 06N and 10N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean that has a low chance of tropical formation later this week. Tropical Storm Debby is now well northeast of the area over eastern Georgia and will continue moving away from the region. A diurnal surface trough is analyzed from 21N94W southwestward to the Mexican coast near 19N95W, leading to scattered moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, high pressure favors gentle to moderate winds across central and western portions of the basin. Seas in the northeast Gulf are 4 to 7 feet, with seas of 2 to 4 feet across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Florida will continue tonight into Wed. Ridging will lead to gentle to moderate winds and slight seas for the rest of the week for remaining portions of the basin. A tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean has a low potential of tropical development late this week in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection associated with a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, the eastward extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along 10N in the SW basin, and is leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection south of 15N and west of 70W near Panama and Colombia. Away from the influences of the tropical wave and the aforementioned convection, gentle to moderate winds are ongoing north of the monsoon trough, except in the northwest Caribbean where light to gentle winds are present. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across much of the Caribbean, except for the northwest basin where seas are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds and moderate seas will follow the wave as it moves across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby, located over eastern Georgia. The center of Debby should remain north of the area, but impacts of wind, high seas, and rain will continue offshore NE Florida for the next few days. Aside from Debby, subsidence from the Bermuda-Azores high and dry Saharan Air Layer/dust is precluding significant convection through the basin. A surface trough is analyzed near 27N64W southwestward to near 23N68W, with isolated showers observed near the trough. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the basin, with the exception of the Canary Islands where pockets of moderate to fresh, locally strong winds are observed between the islands. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across much of the Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Debby will move to 32.2N 79.8W Wed morning, 32.6N 79.3W Wed afternoon, inland to 33.1N 79.3W Thu morning, inland to 34.0N 79.5W Thu afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.8N 79.6W Fri morning, and become post-tropical and move to 38.5N 78.5W Fri afternoon. Debby will change little in intensity as it moves to the 45.0N 72.0W Sat afternoon. Strong to near-gale S winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 28N and W of 75W through Thu night, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast today. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late week. $$ ADAMS/ADAMS/Lewitsky