000
AXNT20 KNHC 071014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 31.9N 79.5W at 07/0900 UTC
or 60 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina, moving E at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical Storm-force
winds extend 120 nm from the center in the NE quadrant, 150 nm in
the SE quadrant, and 100 nm SW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are
within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and 210 nm in the
SE quadrant, with maximum seas of 16 ft. Scattered moderate
convection along with strong to near gale force winds are
occurring N of 28N and W of 73W. With Debby's slow movement, the
threat for major flooding will continue for parts of the SE U.S.
through the week. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website, 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml; and the latest 
Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at 
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, from 17N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Convection near this wave is
mainly associated with the monsoon trough and is described in the
section below. 

A western Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 18N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Convection near this wave is
mainly associated with the monsoon trough and is described in the
section below. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from western Cuba 
to Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. S of 15N and to the W of 
the wave axis, scattered moderate convection is occurring, as the 
wave is interacting with the eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough. The northern portion of this tropical wave could 
reach the SW Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and there is a low 
chance of slow development if it does. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal 
and Gambia near 13N18W to 10N35W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted along and within 150 nm S of
the monsoon trough between 23W and 49W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for detail on a
tropical wave presently in the central Caribbean that may have
tropical development this weekend if it moves into the Bay of
Campeche. 

Weak high pressure centered in the west central Gulf is dominating
morning weather, and no convection is present. Moderate to fresh W
to NW winds are occurring in the NE Gulf due to the effects of
Tropical Storm Debby well NE of the area. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft and subsiding in the NE
Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds offshore Florida will
diminish this morning. As a surface ridge builds over the region,
mainly gentle winds and slight seas will prevail for the rest of 
the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection associated with a tropical wave in the central basin.
Elsewhere, no significant convection is occurring. 

Some strong E winds are noted just S of the aforementioned wave
axis, along with rough seas, from about 13N to 16N between 72W and
78W. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate to locally fresh,
except for the NW Caribbean and S of the eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough, where winds are light to gentle. Seas
are 3 to 6 ft, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the NW basin. 

For the forecast, mainly moderate trades and slight to moderate
seas will prevail through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Debby. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is
leading a generally gentle tradewind regime through the basin,
with no significant convection aside from that associated with the
monsoon trough, depicted in the above section. A belt of moderate
trades extends from 19N to 26N across the basin, and there are
some locally fresh E winds offshore Hispaniola. Seas are 4 to 6
ft, with some locally 7 seas in the aforementioned belt of
moderate winds. Slight seas are present in the vicinity and west
of the Bahamas. 

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby is near 31.9N 
79.6W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving east at 4 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 996 mb. Debby will move to 32.3N 79.3W this afternoon,
32.9N 79.5W Thu morning, then inland to 34.1N 79.8W Thu 
afternoon. Debby will weaken to a tropical depression near 36.0N 
79.7W Fri morning, then become extratropical and move to 39.2N 
77.8W Fri afternoon. Post- tropical cyclone Debby will be near 
43.8N 73.9W Sat morning. Strong to near-gale S winds and rough to 
very rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 28N and W of
73W into Fri, with tropical storm conditions across the waters E 
of NE Florida today. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally 
moderate or weaker through late week. 

$$
Konarik