556 AXNT20 KNHC 072313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 32.5N 79.1W at 07/2100 UTC or 40 nm ESE of Charleston South Carolina, moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Tropical storm force winds extend 150 NM from the center in the NE quadrant, 160 NM in the SE quadrant and 90 NM in the SW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 270 NM of the center in the NE quadrant and 240 NM in the SE quadrant. Strong to near-gale force winds are also occurring north of 27N and west of 72W. With Debby's slow movement, the threat for major flooding will continue for parts of the SE U.S. through the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, from 17N southward to 05N, moving W at around 10 kt. Convection near this wave is mainly associated with the monsoon trough and is described in the section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 17N southward to 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near this wave is mainly associated with the monsoon trough and is described in the section below. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 20N southward to Panama, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 15N and west of 75W, including over portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia as the wave interacts with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. The northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the SW Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. If it does, there is a low chance of slow tropical cyclone development through the next seven days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal near 14N17W southwestward to 09N32W and then westward to 09N52W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N52W to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and up to 300 nm S of the monsoon trough between 22W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for detail on a tropical wave, presently in the central Caribbean, that may have tropical development this weekend if it moves into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds are occurring in the NE Gulf due to the pressure gradient between weak high pressure in the west-central Gulf and Tropical Storm Debby well NE of the area. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the west-central Gulf continues to favor light to gentle winds across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft and subsiding in the NE Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, in the wake of Tropical Storm Debby, a weak surface ridge will build over the Gulf with gentle to moderate winds prevailing for the rest of the week. A tropical wave currently over the W Caribbean has a low potential of tropical development in the SW Gulf of Mexico this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection associated with a tropical wave in the central basin. Elsewhere, no significant convection is occurring. Aside from the moderate to fresh winds driven by the tropical wave and associated convection, gentle to moderate E winds prevail across much of the Caribbean. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, locally up to 8 ft in the central Caribbean per recent altimeter data. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are analyzed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a tropical wave in the W Caribbean will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms and locally strong tradewinds. Any potential for tropical development with this wave is limited to after the wave exits the basin and enters the SW Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debby. Scattered moderate convection associated with convergence between Tropical Storm Debby and the Bermuda High is occurring from the Florida Straits, Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands northward. An upper-level low is causing isolated thunderstorms from 28N to 25N between 64W and 70W. All other convection across the Atlantic is associated with the Monsoon Trough. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high continues to support gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Slight seas are present in the near and west of the Bahamas. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby will move to 33.1N 79.4W Thu morning, inland to 34.3N 79.8W Thu afternoon, weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near 36.2N 79.8W Fri morning, 39.8N 77.6W Fri afternoon, 44.3N 73.1W Sat morning, and 48.8N 67.3W Sat afternoon. Debby will change little in intensity as it moves to 53.0N 56.0W Sun afternoon. Because of the slow movement of Debby, even after tropical storm conditions diminish tonight, strong to near-gale S winds will continue through Fri in the waters east of Florida. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through the weekend. $$ EA/AKR