000 AXNT20 KNHC 080551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The nearby convective precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The nearby convective precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that the 81W/82W tropical wave is moving through the area of an inverted trough. The monsoon trough is along 12N74W 11N81W, beyond Costa Rica and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, and in the coastal waters of each country. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N33W 12N45W. The ITCZ is along 10N/11N from 51W to 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 08N between 34W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh westerly winds are from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. A 1012 mb high pressure center is near 24N94W. Slight seas are in the Gulf. In the wake of Tropical Storm Debby, a weak surface ridge will build over the Gulf with gentle to moderate winds prevailing for the next several days. A weak cold front may reach the N Gulf coast on Fri, but then stall and dissipate on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that the 81W/82W tropical wave is moving through the area of an inverted trough. The monsoon trough is along 12N74W 11N81W, beyond Costa Rica and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, and in the coastal waters of each country. Fresh surface cyclonic wind flow is from 14N to 17N between 77W and the coast of Central America. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The forecast for the next 48 hours consists of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate to near-rough seas, from 13N southward between 70W and 76W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 13N to 18N between 70W and 80W. Slight to moderate seas are from 70W westward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. A W Caribbean Sea 81W tropical wave is producing scattered thunderstorms and locally strong tradewinds. The wave is forecast to move westward and inland into Central America during the next day or two, and development of this system is not expected. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will prevail, with the exception of fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, and near the coast of Colombia on Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The center of Tropical Storm Debby, at 08/0600 UTC, is near 33.0N 79.6W. A major flood threat continues for parts of the Carolinas, and western sections of Virginia. This position also is about 19 nm/35 km to the NE of Charleston in South Carolina; and about 54 nm/100 km to the SW of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina. DEBBY is moving toward the NW, or 325 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Expect in the Atlantic Ocean: S to SW strong to near-gale force winds, and rough seas, from 29N northward between 74W and 80W. Current convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N northward between 76W and 83W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml; and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. Strong and faster winds are from 28N northward from 73W westward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere between 70W and 75W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 21N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 17N to 28N between 20W and 60W. Fresh SE winds are within 120 nm of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 10N24W 05N42W southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 12N17W 09N28W 05N43W southward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 74W eastward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from Hispaniola northward between 60W and 75W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the water vapor imagery from 13N northward between 36W and 62W. Tropical Storm Debby is N of the forecast area near 32.9N 79.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Fresh to strong southerly winds associated with the outer circulation of Debby are still affecting the waters E of NE Florida to about 74W. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less early of Fri. As Debby moves farther N, a ridge will build again across the Bahamas and the waters E of Florida. $$ mt/gr