000
AXNT20 KNHC 081723
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 34W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the monsoon trough, generally from 05N to 15N between 27W
and 36W.

Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis
is along 52W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the wave 
axis. This wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean Fri 
evening or Fri night.

A third tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
along 84W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is associated 
with the wave. This convective activity is affecting eastern 
Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, portions of Costa Rica and 
Panama, as well as the NW Caribbean, particularly S of 19N and W 
of 78W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh 
easterly winds near the northern end of the wave axis. A cyclonic 
circulation is also noted near the intersection of the tropical 
wave axis and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon 
trough near 13N83W. This wave is expected to emerge over the far 
eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later today. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal  
near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to 11N43W. A portion
of the ITCZ then extends from 11N43W to near 11N51W before being
bisected by a tropical wave. The second portion of the ITCZ then
extends from near 11N54W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and within 400nm S of the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cyclonic circulation of Debby extends as far south as central
Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak ridge dominates the 
remainder of the Gulf with a weak high pressure center of 1011 mb
near 25N92W. Isolated thunderstorms are observed in the northern 
Gulf, associated with convergent westerly winds between Debby's 
broad circulation and the weak Gulf High. Light to gentle winds 
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed across much of the basin.

For the forecast, as Tropical Storm Debby continues to move 
farther north, a weak surface ridge will build over the Gulf 
waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through
early next week. A weak cold front may reach the N Gulf coast on 
Fri, then stall and dissipate on Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the basin.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across much of the 
Caribbean, with the exception of the lee of Cuba where light and 
variable winds are observed per recent scatterometer data. Seas 
are generally 3 to 5 ft, except for the NW Caribbean where seas of
1 to 3 ft are analyzed.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the W Caribbean is 
expected to emerge over the far eastern portion of the east 
Pacific Ocean later today. Elsewhere, moderate trades will 
prevail, with the exception of fresh to strong winds in the Gulf 
of Venezuela, and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure could form in the central or 
western tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development 
of this system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles
during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally 
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Seas at 7 to 10 ft and moderate to fresh with locally strong S to
SW winds are analyzed north of 29N between 72W and the NE coast 
of Florida as Debby slowly moves inland over South Carolina. 
Farther southeast, an upper level low near 29N69W continues to 
support the development of scattered moderate convection over and 
northeast of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, 
generally north of 21N between 65W and 80W. Otherwise, the 
Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, 
supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas 
across much of the basin. The other exception is an area of 
moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in the vicinity of 
the Canary Islands and along the west coast of Africa north of 
22N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to
rough seas associated with the outer circulation of Debby are 
still affecting the waters E of NE Florida to about 72W. These 
winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less early on Fri. As 
Debby moves farther N, a ridge will build again across the Bahamas
and the waters E of Florida promoting gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas. 

$$
Adams