122 AXNT20 KNHC 082323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 34W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 05N to 15N between 26W to 40W. Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is along 55W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean Fri evening or Fri night. A third tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with the axis along 84W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 78W and 87W. Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring near the northern end of the wave axis. This wave is expected to emerge over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal near 16N17W and continues west-southwestward to 11N44W. A portion of the ITCZ then extends from 11N44W to near 12N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 400nm S of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf with a 1012 mb high near 24N92W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will build over the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. A weak cold front may reach the N Gulf coast on Fri, then stall and dissipate on Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the basin. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail across much of the Caribbean, with the exception of the lee of Cuba where light and variable winds are observed. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except for the NW Caribbean where seas of 1 to 3 ft are analyzed. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the W Caribbean is expected to emerge over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later tonight. Elsewhere, moderate trades will prevail, with the exception of fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia, occurring each evening through Sat. Looking ahead, the tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic could see slow development over the next few days. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. The probability of tropical development is medium over the next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Seas of 7 to 10 ft and moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds are analyzed north of 29N between 72W and 80W as Debby slowly moves northward. Farther southeast, an upper level low continues to support the development of scattered moderate convection over and northeast of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, generally north of 22N between 70W and 78W. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas across much of the basin. The other exception is an area of moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and along the west coast of Africa north of 22N. For the forecast for the area west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft will continue tonight before winds diminish slightly and seas subside slowly on Fri. As Debby moves farther N, a ridge will build again across the Bahamas and the waters E of Florida promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. $$ ADAMS/ADAMS