095 AXNT20 KNHC 090534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days, while it moves westward in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric conditions are expected to become more conducive for development after the next few days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by early next week, while the weather system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward. It is possible that the feature may approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of the next week. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from the coastal waters of Guyana and Suriname southward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. A 91W tropical wave is entering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough covers the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W in the western Caribbean Sea and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal along 16N, to 14N20W 12N30W 10N36W 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W 05N42W 05N47W 07N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 15N between 22W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in the north central coastal waters, from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 75 nm to the south of the cold front between the Florida Big Bend and SE Louisiana. A 1010 mb high pressure center is near 24N93W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the Gulf. A weak surface ridge continues to build over the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas during the forecast period. A weak cold front has reached the N Gulf coast tonight and is expected to stall through Fri and dissipate on Sat. A tropical wave moving across the Gulf of Honduras tonight will impact the SW Gulf Fri evening and night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 91W tropical wave is entering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough covers the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W in the western Caribbean Sea and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 75W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is from the coast of Honduras northward from 84W westward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 80W westward. Slight to moderate seas are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate trades will prevail across the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development early next week, and a tropical depression could form while the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system could then approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area from 20N northward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in the water vapor imagery is from 10N northward between 40W and 20N70W 31N62W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N70W 31N62W westward. Moderate seas are everywhere, in general. Some exceptions are for: slight seas from 28N southward from 70W westward; and from 27N northward between 39W and 47W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 30N northward from 74W westward, around T.D. Debby. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 25N northward from 17W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between the monsoon trough/ITCZ and 30N26W 29N39W 31N52W 25N63W. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere from 60W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward. Tropical Depression Debby continues to move N and well away from the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough seas associated with the outer circulation of Debby will affect the waters N of 30N and W of 75W tonight before diminishing. A ridge will build again across the Bahamas and the waters E of Florida promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it approaches the Lesser Antilles Mon night through Tue. The system could then approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. $$ mt/ss