000 AXNT20 KNHC 090955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 23W to 41W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, along 58W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean this afternoon and evening. Isolated moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 54W and 59W. A third tropical wave extends from the Yucatan Peninsula SW into the eastern Pacific Ocean along 91W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras S of 20N between 83W and inland along 89W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are occurring behind the northern end of the wave axis. The north portion of this wave is expected to pass across the SW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon through Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Senegal near 16N16.5W and continues west-southwestward to 10N36W to 06N40W. A portion of the ITCZ then extends from 06N40W to 05N42W to 07.5N58.5W. Significant convection associated with these features are described above with the tropical waves. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1012 mb high near 25.5N92W. A weak cold front has drifted southward to the northern Gulf coasts from the Texas-Louisiana border to the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm S of this front between the Atchafalaya Bay and Apalachicola, FL. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed across the basin. For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue over the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas during the forecast period. A weak cold front has reached the N Gulf coasts and is expected to stall through Fri and dissipate on Sat. A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula today will produce active weather across the SW Gulf this evening through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The W Atlantic ridge extends to the central Bahamas, with the associated pressure gradient across the basin yielding moderate to locally fresh trade winds E of 80W and SE winds across NW portions. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except for 6 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia, and in the NW Caribbean where seas are 2 to 3 ft. Isolated moderate convection dots the eastern basin E of 66W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this wave should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development early next week, and a tropical depression could form while the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles Mon through early Tue. The system is then forecast to move generally west- northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge dominates most of the Atlantic waters, and extends to the central Bahamas. To the south of the ridge, the pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas across much of the basin, with a small area of fresh winds between 50W and 60W. The other exception is an area of fresh to strong NE winds with 6 to 7 ft seas in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and along the west coast of Africa north of 22N. Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby is moving through Virginia this morning. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and associated low pressure of Debby is producing fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft north of 30N between 70W and 79W. Just south of this area, an upper level low continues to support the development of scattered moderate convection over and north of the northern Bahamas to 30N and the between 70W and 78W. For the forecast for the area west of 55W, fresh southerly winds and moderate seas associated with the outer circulation of Post- Tropical Cyclone Debby affecting the waters N of 30N and W of 70W will diminish throughout the day. The Atlantic ridge will then shift to the northern Bahamas and SE Florida through the weekend, promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for strong winds during the evening and night along the north coast of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it approaches the Lesser Antilles Mon through early Tue. The system is then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. $$ Stripling