000 AXNT20 KNHC 091724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 27W to 41W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is passing through the Lesser Antilles, along 62W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 56W and 60W. Upper Air Sounding Data from Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago was very useful when analyzing the tropical wave this morning. A third tropical wave extends along 92W from the Bay of Campeche southward across Mexico and into the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean S of 23N between 81W and the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras. Another area of scattered showers is occurring in the southwestern Bay of Campeche. The far northern portion of this wave is expected to continue passing through the Bay of Campeche through Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 08N38W, and then westward to 08N44W. Significant convection near the monsoon trough is described above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico from the SE Texas coast extending southeastward to near and along 28N, and then into the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm north of the front. Outside of convection, the weak high is maintaining light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will continue to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across the northern Gulf through tonight, before dissipating Sat. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula today will produce active weather across the southwestern Gulf this evening through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for ongoing convection in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the Colombian Basin in the vicinity of both the Monsoon Trough and the Colombia Low. Otherwise, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the majority of the basin. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the Caribbean, increasing to locally 6 to 8 ft in the area of strong winds near the coast of Colombia, supported by recent altimeter data. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia tonight, and near the Windward Passage Sat night. A modest tropical wave is going to bring some showers and thunderstorms for the eastern basin through tonight, and central basin this weekend. Looking ahead, a robust tropical wave currently at the eastern Atlantic will gradually develop as it moves across the central Atlantic for the next several days. It could become a tropical depression early next week while approaching the Leeward Islands. As a result, winds and seas might build near Greater Antilles next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection associated with an upper-level trough is observed over areas north of 24N and west of 69W, including the northern Bahamas. All other notable convection in the Atlantic is associated with tropical waves and described in that section above. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds across much of the basin with seas of 4 to 7 ft. The exceptions are near the Canary Islands and west African coast north of 18N and east of 22W, where seas to 8 ft are occurring. Another area of seas to 8 ft is analyzed NE of the Lesser Antilles from 17N to 25N between 52W and 64W. For the forecast for the area west of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas north of 28N and W of 70W should diminish further today and this evening. The Atlantic ridge will then shift to the northern Bahamas and southeast Florida through the weekend, promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for strong winds during the evening and night along the north coast of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a robust tropical wave currently at the eastern Atlantic will gradually develop as it moves across the central Atlantic for the next several days. It could become a tropical depression early next week while approaching the Leeward Islands. As a result, winds and seas might build near Greater Antilles next week. $$ Adams