000 AXNT20 KNHC 092311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 29W to 43W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is passing through the Lesser Antilles, along 64W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated convection is noted south of 13N between 56W and 60W. A third tropical wave extends along 94W from the Bay of Campeche southward across Mexico and into the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras into southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. The far northern portion of this wave is expected to continue passing through the Bay of Campeche through Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 15N18W to 09N46W. Convection near the monsoon trough is described above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for ongoing convection in southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico from the SE Texas coast extending southeastward to 28N, and then into the Florida Panhandle. Isolated showers are occurring offshore of northern Florida. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across much of the basin. For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to trigger some showers across the northern Gulf through tonight before dissipating Sat. A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula today will continue to produce active weather across the southwestern Gulf tonight through Sat. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for ongoing convection in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the Colombian Basin in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough and the Colombia Low. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E winds prevail across the majority of the basin, with locally fresh NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the Caribbean, increasing to locally 6 to 8 ft in the area of fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia tonight, and near the Windward Passage Sat night. A modest tropical wave will support moderate convection over the eastern basin tonight, and the central basin this weekend. Looking ahead, a robust tropical wave currently over the eastern Atlantic could slowly develop over the next couple of days while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west- northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. Chances for tropical development are moderate over the next seven days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for ongoing convection over the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds across much of the basin and seas of 4 to 7 ft. The exceptions are near the Canary Islands and west African coast north of 18N and east of 22W, where seas to 8 ft are occurring. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift to the northern Bahamas and southeast Florida through the weekend, promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for strong NE winds Sat night along the north coast of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a robust tropical wave currently over the eastern Atlantic could slowly develop over the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. Chances for tropical development are moderate over the next seven days. $$ ADAMS