000 AXNT20 KNHC 100419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0420 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 03.5N to 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 29W to 43W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 05N to the U.S. Virgin Islands, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A third tropical wave extends along 95W from the Bay of Campeche southward across Mexico and into the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras into southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. The far northern portion of this wave is expected to continue passing through the Bay of Campeche through Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of El Mamghar near 20N16.5W to 11N4.5W. Convection near the monsoon trough is described above in the Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche producing numerous moderate convection across the region. A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico from the SE Texas coast extending southeastward to 27N, and then into the Florida Panhandle. Isolated showers are occurring offshore of northern Florida. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak stationary front across the northern Gulf will continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms along it through tonight, before dissipating Sat. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. A tropical wave moving across the Bay of Campeche will produce active weather across the southwestern Gulf tonight through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is observed south of Cuba in association with a surface trough over the area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E winds prevail across the majority of the basin, with locally fresh NE winds near the coast of Colombia, the Windward Passage, and the Mona Passage. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the Caribbean, increasing to locally 6 to 7 ft in the area of fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia tonight, and in the Windward Passage Sat night. A modest tropical wave will bring some showers and thunderstorms for the eastern basin tonight through Sat, and across the central basin over the weekend. Looking ahead, a robust tropical wave currently in the eastern Atlantic will gradually become better organized as it moves westward across the central Atlantic for the next few days. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Mon or Mon night while approaching the Lesser Antilles. This system is then expected to move west- northwest through the middle of next week and could approach the Greater Antilles. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for ongoing convection over the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds across much of the basin and seas of 4 to 7 ft. The exceptions are near the Canary Islands and west African coast north of 18N and east of 22W, where seas to 8 ft are occurring. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda extends southwestward to the central Bahamas, and will shift to the northwest Bahamas and southeast Florida through the weekend, promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds during the evening and nighttime hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a robust tropical wave currently in the eastern Atlantic will gradually become better organized as it moves westward across the central Atlantic for the next few days. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Mon or Mon night while approaching the Lesser Antilles. This system is then expected to move west- northwest through the middle of next week and could approach the Greater Antilles. $$ KRV