000 AXNT20 KNHC 101002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W-40W south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 15.5N between 33W to 44W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W south of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 17.5N between 68W and 73W. A third tropical wave extends from the eastern Pacific along 96W northeastward across the Bay of Campeche, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted across much of the Bay of Campeche south of 20.5N. The far northern portion of this wave is expected to continue passing across the Bay of Campeche today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 19.5N16.5W to 14.5N31W to 10N47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the coast of Africa from 08.5N to 12.5N E of 20W. Convection elsewhere near the monsoon trough is described above in the Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough, likely the northern portion of a tropical wave, is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and is focusing scattered moderate to strong convection within 150 nm NW of the trough. A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico from the western Florida Panhandle to the SE Texas coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore from northern Florida to Mobile Bay. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across much of the basin. For the forecast, the stationary front across the northern Gulf will dissipate by this evening. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. A tropical wave moving across the Bay of Campeche will produce active weather across the southwestern Gulf through tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively stable atmospheric conditions prevail across the basin E of 80W this morning. OUtside of convection described with the tropical wave along 68W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed moving across the Windward Islands and extends westward to 64W. Similar convection dots the northern Leeward Islands and adjacent Atlantic waters to 21N60W. Otherwise, moderate trade winds generally prevail across the majority of the basin, with locally fresh NE winds near the coast of Colombia, the Windward Passage, and the Mona Passage. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in moderate SE trades across NW portions. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage Sat night. A modest tropical wave will bring some showers and thunderstorms across the eastern basin today, and across the central basin over the rest of the weekend. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Tropical Atlantic will gradually become better organized as it moves westward across the Atlantic for the next few days. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Mon through Tue while this system approaches and then moves over or near the Lesser Antilles. This system is then expected to move west-northwest through the middle of next week and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for ongoing convection over the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate E to NE winds across much of the basin E of 70W, and seas of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate SE to S winds prevail W of 70W, where seas have diminished to 3 to 5 ft. Farther east near the Canary Islands and west African coast north of 18N and east of 25W, strong NE winds prevail, where seas are 7 to 11 ft, as recently measured by satellite altimeter data. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward to the northwest Bahamas and southeast Florida, and will remain in place through Mon, before weakening. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds during the evening and nighttime hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Tropical Atlantic will gradually become better organized as it moves westward across the Atlantic for the next few days. Conditions are forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Mon through Tue while this system approaches and then moves over or near the Lesser Antilles. This system is then expected to move west-northwest through the middle of next week and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles. $$ Stripling