000 AXNT20 KNHC 102328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has an axis long 40W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 37W and 47W. The convective activity continues to increase with this tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves W to WNW at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally WNW and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and high chance of development in 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 71W from western Dominican Republic southward into NW Venezuela, and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 69W and 72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to a 1007 mb low pressure near 18N19W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12N40W to 12N50W. See the Special Features section for information on convection. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the northern Gulf is keeping isolated thunderstorms across the region. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is causing scattered thunderstorms there. A surface ridge reaches eastward from a 1018 mb high at the west- central Gulf to southwestern Florida. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present for the whole Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough, remnants of a former weakening stationary front, extending from the Florida Panhandle SW to the NW Gulf will dissipate tonight. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. A tropical wave moving across southern Mexico will continue to support scattered showers and tstms across the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge over and east of the northeast Bahamas maintains trade winds for much of the basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered moderate convection at the southeastern basin, and near eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight. A tropical wave will bring showers and thunderstorms across the central and portions of the E basin today and Sun, and across the western basin by Mon. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. Then, the system is forecast to move generally WNW and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two upper-level troughs are producing scattered moderate convection to the east of Florida, and just north of the northern Leeward Islands. For additional convection in the Atlantic Basin, read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted, except moderate to fresh E to SE to S winds with 5 to 7 ft seas from 09N to 18N between 33W and 45W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin from Equator to 12N and west of 30W, gentle to moderate southerly and westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward across the Bahamas and Florida, and will remain in place through Mon, before weakening. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds during the evening and nighttime hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. Then, the system is forecast to move generally WNW and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. Regardless of development, fresh winds and rough seas are forecast for the SE offshore waters from Mon evening, increasing to near gale force winds just NE of Puerto Rico by Tue night. $$ AReinhart