000 AXNT20 KNHC 110432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has an axis long 41.9W from 20N southward, moving W at 13 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 38.5W and 47W. Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization in association with this tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally west- northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and high chance of development in 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is analyzed with its axis along 22W from 21N southward. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 09N to 13N between the west coast of Africa and the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W from western Haiti southward into the Colombia and Venezuela border, and is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the coasts of Haiti, north of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 12.3N41.9W to 09N50W. See the Special Features section for information on convection. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the northern Gulf is keeping isolated thunderstorms across the region. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is causing numerous moderate convection across the area. A surface ridge reaches eastward from a 1017 mb high at the west-central Gulf to southwestern Florida. Outside of convection, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present for the entire basin. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from the Florida Panhandle SW to the NW Gulf will dissipate overnight. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. The north portions of a tropical wave moving across southern Mexico will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge over and east of the northeast Bahamas maintains trade winds for much of the basin. A surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Basin. Another trough over central Cuba is producing scattered moderate convection south of Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are present over the Windward Passage with seas 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight. A tropical wave will bring showers and thunderstorms across the central and portions of the E basin through Sun, and across the western basin by Mon. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. Then, the system is forecast to move generally W-NW and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection to the east of Florida, and just north of the northern Leeward Islands. For additional convection in the Atlantic Basin, read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the above. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 23N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 23N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE winds along with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted between 17W and 37W. Similar winds are found from 12N to the Canary Islands between the west coast of Africa and 30W. Seas in this area are 7 to 11 ft. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin from Equator to 12N and west of 30W, gentle to moderate southerly and westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward across the Northern Bahamas and central Florida, and will remain in place through Mon, before weakening. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds during the evening and nighttime hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. Then, the system is forecast to move generally W-NW and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles and SE Bahamas by the middle to latter part of next week. Regardless of development, fresh winds and rough seas are forecast for the SE offshore waters from Mon evening, increasing to near gale-force winds across the SE waters to just NE of Puerto Rico on Tue. $$ KRV