000 AXNT20 KNHC 111816 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad tropical wave is near 45W from 20N southward through a 1010 mb low near 12N47W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 43W and 51W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week. This system has a high chance of development through the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 21N southward through a broad 1011 mb low over the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 24W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from near the Windward Passage southward into northern Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present south of Jamaica and Hispaniola from 14N to 17N between 68W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott and curves southwestward to 11N30W, then continues westward to 09N54W. The two low pressures associated with the aforementioned tropical waves are embedded along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough from 09N to 12N between 26W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 12N between 51W and 58W. Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front over the Florida Panhandle and New Orleans is generating isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. A weak surface ridge runs southwestward from central Florida to the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the west-central and southwestern Gulf through this evening. Otherwise, the weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a robust tropical wave. The Atlantic Ridge near 28N continues to support a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms at the northwestern basin and waters near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the central and eastern basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon. Regardless on the development of the robust tropical upstream, gale conditions are expected to begin affecting the extreme southeastern tropical waters beginning Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a robust tropical wave. The northern portion of a tropical wave at the central Caribbean is enhancing scattered showers and isolate thunderstorms near the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Convergent southerly winds are generating isolated thunderstorms east of the northeastern Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1025 mb High at the north-central Atlantic continues to provide gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas north of 25N between 30W and the Georgia- central Florida coast. For the Atlantic from 14N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present. From the Equator to 14N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward across the Northern Bahamas and central Florida, and will remain in place through Mon, then shift northeast and weaken through Wed. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds during the evening and nighttime hours along the north coast of Hispaniola through Mon. Regardless of development on the robust tropical wave, gale conditions are expected to begin affecting the southeastern Atlantic waters and portions of the extreme northeastern Caribbean beginning early Wed morning. $$ Chan