000 AXNT20 KNHC 112140 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Five...Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is centered near 13.6N 48.0W at 11/2100 UTC or 830 nm ESE of Antigua, moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, with seas peaking near 10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 43W and 51W. The forecast calls for the west-northwestward motion to continue through the next 36-48 hours, bringing the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday as a tropical storm. Heavy rainfall from this system may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 21N southward through a broad 1011 mb low over the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 14W and 33W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from E Cuba southward into northern Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 76W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 11N30W to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five near 13.6N48W. Nearby convection is discussed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-3 ft are noted on either side of the trough. A weak pressure gradient over the remainder of the Gulf waters if supporting light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are forecast off the Yucatan Peninsula at night the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the Caribbean waters, except over the NW Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is near 13.6N 48.0W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Five will move to 14.3N 51.2W Mon morning, 15.2N 55.5W Mon afternoon, 15.9N 59.2W Tue morning, 17.0N 62.2W Tue afternoon, 18.3N 64.4W Wed morning, and 19.8N 66.1W Wed afternoon. Five will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.9N 67.4W Thu afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. High pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. Surface ridging with this area of high pressure is along 30N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range off Florida, and 4-7 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Aside from PTC Five, fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward to just east of the Bahamas and is forecast to remain in place through Mon, then shift NE and weaken through Wed. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is near 13.6N 48.0W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west- northwest at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Five will move to 14.3N 51.2W Mon morning, 15.2N 55.5W Mon afternoon, 15.9N 59.2W Tue morning, 17.0N 62.2W Tue afternoon, 18.3N 64.4W Wed morning, and 19.8N 66.1W Wed afternoon. Five will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.9N 67.4W Thu afternoon. $$ AL