000 AXNT20 KNHC 120441 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0437 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Five at 0300 UTC, the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 kt and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 21N southward through a broad 1011 mb low over the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 18W and 34W. The axis of a eastern Caribbean tropical wave was relocated and it is now analyzed near 81W from W Cuba southward into northern Panama. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 78W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 20N16W and extends southwestward to 12N34W to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five near 13.8N49.2W. Nearby convection is discussed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed over the western end of the Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous moderate convection is depicted over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted on in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will continue over the SW Gulf of Mexico through tonight as a surface trough there along 95W shifts slowly W and into Mexico. A weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are forecast off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night for the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the Caribbean waters, except over the NW Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is near 14.1N 50.1W at 0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Five will move W-NW through early Tue morning then turn NW across the NE Caribbean Tue and Wed. Five is expected to reach near 14.8N 53.9W Mon morning, near 15.6N 58.0W Mon evening as a tropical storm, near 16.2N 61.0W Tue morning, near 18.7N 65.6W Wed morning, and near 20.3N 66.8W Wed evening as a hurricane. Five will then move northward across the western Atlantic Wed night through Sat and gradually strengthen. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. A surface trough extends from Haiti to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the eastern Bahamas in association with this trough. A deep layer trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 22.5N to 26N between 59.5W and 64W. High pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. Surface ridging with this area of high pressure is along 30N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range off Florida, and 4-7 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Aside from PTC Five, fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward to just east of the Bahamas and is forecast to remain in place through Mon, then shift NE and weaken through Wed. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is near 14.1N 50.1W at 0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Five will move W-NW through early Tue morning then turn NW across the NE Caribbean Tue and Wed. Five is expected to reach near 15.6N 58.0W Mon evening as a tropical storm, near 16.2N 61.0W Tue morning, near 18.7N 65.6W Wed morning, and near 20.3N 66.8W Wed evening as a hurricane. Five will then turn move northward across the western Atlantic Wed night through Sat and gradually strengthen, reaching near 24.5N 67.7W Thu evening and near 28.5N 65.9W Fri evening. $$ KRV