000 AXNT20 KNHC 121014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was centered near latitude 14.4N 52.5W at 5 AM AST, moving toward the west near 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The central circulation of this system remains somewhat elongated, and has slowed the organization during the past 24 hours. Bands of scattered moderate to strong convection are within 300 nm across the northern semicircle and from 180 to 300 nm across the southern semicircle. A broad zone of 8 to 12 ft seas prevails within 400 nm N of Five, between 47W and 58W. A fast west- northwest motion is expected through early Tue morning before the system begins to turn more NW, strengthen to a tropical storm, and move across the NE Caribbean Tue through Wed morning, then will turn northward into the Atlantic and strengthen to a hurricane Wed night, then across the open western Atlantic through Sat, while gradually strengthening. On the current forecast track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to become a tropical storm while moving across the Leeward Islands Tue afternoon, then move across portions of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening and night, while gradually strengthening. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W-26W, from 21N southward through a broad 1011 mb low just SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07.5N to 10N between 22W and 29W. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near W Cuba southward into western Panama. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 16N between 80W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 21N17W and extends through the broad low center SW of the Cabo Verdes to 12N34W, then to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five near 14.4N52.5W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 10.5N between 32W and 37W. Otherwise, convection is discussed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough from 20N to 24.5N to the west of 94W. Otherwise, a weak ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida and westward to the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-4 ft are noted across south and southwest portions. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft across the NE half. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will continue over the SW Gulf of Mexico today as a surface trough there shifts slowly W and into Mexico. A weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night for the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the Caribbean waters, with a significant area of fresh winds south of 14N to the coast of Venezuela between 68W and 72W. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. Over the NW Caribbean gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is approaching Jamaica, between 74W and 78W, associated with a low level trough moving across eastern Cuba and Jamaica early this morning. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon night. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move W-NW through early Tue morning then turn NW and gradually strengthen across the NE Caribbean Tue and Wed. Five is expected to reach near 15.7N 59.6W Mon night, near 16.5N 62.5W Tue afternoon as a tropical storm, near 17.9N 64.8W Tue night, near 19.4N 66.1W Wed afternoon, and near 21.0N 66.9W Wed night as a hurricane. Five will then move northward across the western Atlantic through Sat and gradually strengthen, with high pressure gradually building westward along 20N in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. A low level trough extends from just south of Jamaica across eastern Cuba to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the Bahamas south of 25N in association with this trough. A deep layer trough along 61W-63W is producing widely scattered moderate convection from 22N to 27N between 60W and 69W. Surface high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, centered on a 1024 mb high near 33N52W. Surface ridging with this area of high pressure extends W-SW to southeast Florida. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge, north of 25N, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere N of 15N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft W of 73W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere N of 20N, except near PTC Five. Aside from PTC Five, fresh NE winds are in the vicinity of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, where seas are in the 6-9 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward to just east of the Bahamas and is forecast to shift NE and weaken through Wed. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move W-NW through early Tue morning then turn NW and gradually strengthen across the NE Caribbean Tue and Wed. Five is expected to reach near 16.5N 62.5W Tue afternoon as a tropical storm, near 17.9N 64.8W Tue night, near 19.4N 66.1W Wed afternoon, and near 21.0N 66.9W Wed night as a hurricane. Five will then move northward and gradually strengthen, reaching near 25N 67W Thu night, and near 29.5N 65W Fri night. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N in its wake. $$ Stripling