000 AXNT20 KNHC 121756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, at 12/1800 UTC, is near 15.5N 56.4W. This position also is about 324 nm/600 km to the ESE of Antigua; and about 583 nm/1080 km to the ESE of San Juan in Puerto Rico. FIVE is moving toward the west/280 degrees 23 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Strong NE winds are from 15N to 22N in the NW quadrant. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 14N to 24N between 54W and 65W. Fresh easterly winds are from 17N to 20N between 49W and 55W in the NE quadrant. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 14N to 24N between 45W and 55W in the E quadrant and in the NE quadrant. Sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are within: 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height is 13 feet. Tropical storm warnings have been announced for the Virgin Islands and for Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions, and heavy rain, are expected in areas of the Leeward Islands late tonight or early on Tuesday. The forecast for total rain accumulations: from 4 inches to 6 inches in parts of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands; from 3 inches to 6 inches in Puerto Rico, with maximum amounts of 10 inches; through Friday morning: from 1 inch to 4 inches in the Windward Islands; from 2 inches to 4 inches in the eastern parts of Hispaniola.ico to the western parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate/isolated strong is within: 250 nm to the north of the center; within 180 nm to the east of the center; within 150 nm to the south of the center; and within 480 nm to the west of the center. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 420 nm to the south of the center, and inland in South America from 05N to 11N between 60W and 66W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml; and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from eastern Honduras to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 480 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 16N20W 13N30W 10N40W 11N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 420 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 35W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a cyclonic circulation center is just off the coast of the Deep South of Texas/NE Mexico, and that an inverted trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that an inverted trough extends from 20N100W in Mexico to the Upper Texas Gulf coast. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that a trough is in the NE quadrant of the Gulf. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers most of the area. A surface ridge passes through 28N in Florida, to 27N96W. A stationary front lingers from the Florid Panhandle beyond SE Louisiana. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the Gulf. A weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night for the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area. Slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. Strong NE to E winds are from 12N to 15N between 70W and 76W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for fresh to strong NE winds that are from 14N to 20N between 60W and 65W, on the western side of the Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 12/1200 UTC, are: 0.48 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.44 in Trinidad; 0.19 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras; 0.16 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.13 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/ MIATPTPAN. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is near 15.1N 55.6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 23 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Five will move to 15.5N 58.8W this evening, 16.3N 62.2W Tue morning, 17.3N 64.6W Tue evening, 18.8N 66.4W Wed morning, 20.5N 67.6W Wed evening, and 22.7N 68.2W Thu morning. Five will then move northward across the western Atlantic through Sat and gradually strengthen, with high pressure gradually building westward along 20N in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough is along 27N74W, to the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N in Cuba to 24N between 74W and 80W. A surface trough is along 31N29W 29N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 27N northward between 24W and 45W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward. Fresh NE winds are from 14N to 22N between 30W and 40W. Fresh SE winds are from 20N to 25N between 70W and 76W. Mostly moderate southerly winds are on the southern side of the monsoon trough. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 15N to 22N between 30W and 40W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 25N southward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is near 15.1N 55.6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 23 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Five will move to 15.5N 58.8W this evening, 16.3N 62.2W Tue morning, 17.3N 64.6W Tue evening, 18.8N 66.4W Wed morning, 20.5N 67.6W Wed evening, and 22.7N 68.2W Thu morning. Five will change little in intensity as it moves to 27.0N 67.5W early Fri. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N in its wake. $$ mt/ea/sk