000 AXNT20 KNHC 122105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 16.0N 57.5W at 12/2100 UTC or 260 nm ESE of Antigua, moving WNW at 24 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, with maximum seas near 13 ft. A fast west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, taking the storm across the northern Leeward Islands overnight and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the north over the Atlantic is expected. The rate of intensification is forecast to be slow during the next day or two before more significant strengthening is forecast after Ernesto exits the Caribbean. Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with the possibility of isolated areas seeing maximum amounts in excess of 8 inches. The heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W, from 21N southward. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 12N between 25W and 30W. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near W Cuba southward into western Panama, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 18N between 80W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 17N16W and extends to 10N38W to 11N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 31W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is supporting light to gentle winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and Tuesday evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for more on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft prevail over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ernesto will move to 16.2N 60.3W Tue morning, 16.9N 63.4W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 65.6W Wed morning, 20.9N 67.1W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 67.8W Thu morning, and 25.0N 68.0W Thu afternoon. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.4N 66.0W Fri afternoon. Ernesto will then move northward across the western Atlantic through Sat and gradually strengthen, with high pressure gradually building westward along 20N in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto. Aside from Tropical Storm Ernesto, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 32N51W. A ridge extends from the high center WSW along 29N/30N. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Ernesto will move to 16.2N 60.3W Tue morning, 16.9N 63.4W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 65.6W Wed morning, 20.9N 67.1W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 67.8W Thu morning, and 25.0N 68.0W Thu afternoon. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.4N 66.0W Fri afternoon. Ernesto will then move northward across the western Atlantic through Sat and gradually strengthen, with high pressure gradually building westward along 20N in its wake. $$ AL