000 AXNT20 KNHC 130445 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 59.6 West or at about 145 nm of Antigua and about 645 nm ESE of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, with maximum seas near 14 ft.Ernesto is moving toward the west at near 22 kt. A westward to west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands by early Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, from 19N southward. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06.5N to 09N between 25W and 30W. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near W Cuba southward into western Costa Rica into the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 20N between 80W and 85.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 21N17W and extends to 10.5N38W to 11N45W. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 37W and 41W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 43W and 46.5W ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is drifting west off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This convection is in association with a surface trough over the area. A weak pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds over the SW Gulf with seas 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and Tuesday evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Ernesto. A surface trough is depicted over southern Cuba and Haiti and is producing scattered moderate convection off the coasts of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Off the coast of Colombia winds are fresh to locally strong with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are in the SE Caribbean. Over the NE Caribbean winds are fresh with seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft prevail over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ernesto is near 16.0N 59.6W at 11 PM AST moving west at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Ernesto will move to near 16.4N 62.0W Tue morning, near 17.7N 64.6W Tue evening, near 19.5N 66.5W Wed morning, then to near 21.7N 67.8W Wed evening as a hurricane, then turn more northward and gradually strengthen as it moves near 12 kt across the western Atlantic. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N late Fri through Sat in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Ernesto. Aside from Tropical Storm Ernesto, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 35N39W. A ridge extends from the high center WSW along 29N/30N. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N with seas 3 to 5. Except for fresh to strong winds near the Canary Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Ernesto will move to 16.2N 60.3W Tue morning, 16.9N 63.4W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 65.6W Wed morning, 20.9N 67.1W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 67.8W Thu morning, and 25.0N 68.0W Thu afternoon. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.4N 66.0W Fri afternoon. Ernesto will then move northward across the western Atlantic through Sat and gradually strengthen, with high pressure gradually building westward along 20N in its wake. $$ KRV