000 AXNT20 KNHC 131023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West at 5 AM AST, or about 10 nm SE of Guadeloupe. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 17 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Maximum seas are estimated near 15 ft. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Bands of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms continue to increase surrounding Ernesto this morning, and are moving across the Leeward Islands at this time. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen on satellite imagery from 11N to 20N between 59W and 65W. A west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic and gradually intensify, reaching hurricane strength Wed night well north of the Mona Passage. Ernesto is then expected to continue to gradually strengthen as it moves northward around 10 kt across the open Atlantic, and reach very near Bermuda Sat afternoon. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. Storm surge and very large surf produced by swell from Ernesto will impact Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight through early Wed, producing life threatening conditions along the coasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, from 19N southward. It is moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 07N to 08N between 22W and 29W. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from 20Na southward across the Gulf of Honduras and into the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 20N between 80W and 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 21N16.5W and extends to 10N43W to 11.5N48W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 17W to the coast of Africa, and from 07N to 12N between 40W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is drifting westward across the Bay of Campeche and across the SW Gulf south of 24N and west of 94W. This convection is in association with a surface trough that has been moving slowly westward across the area the past few days. A weak pressure pattern is supporting moderate winds over the SW Gulf with seas 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Ernesto. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms occurring ahead of Ernesto have passed south of Puerto Rico and reached as far west as 68.5W. Fresh to strong NE winds are spreading westward across the NE Caribbean ahead of Ernesto, where seas are building to 5 to 8 ft. A surface trough is depicted over southern Cuba and Haiti and is focusing scattered moderate convection across the waters between Jamaica, Haiti and SE Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Off the coast of Colombia winds are fresh to locally strong with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are in the both the SE and western Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to gradually intensify during the next few days, as it moves to near 17.1N 63.4W this afternoon, near 18.7N 65.7W Tue night, near 20.7N 67.3W Wed afternoon, then to near 23.0N 68.3W Wed night as a hurricane, then turn northward and continue to gradually strengthen as it moves around 10 kt across the western Atlantic and towards Bermuda. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N late Fri through Sat in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Ernesto. A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 23N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft in E swell extending from 20N to 23N between 53W and 64W. Aside from Tropical Storm Ernesto, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 35N39W. A ridge extends from the high center W-SW along 29N/30N and then into central Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N with seas 4 to 6 ft. Except for fresh to strong winds near the Canary Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift E and weaken over the next few days. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to gradually intensify during the next few days, as it moves to near 17.1N 63.4W this afternoon, near 20.7N 67.3W Wed afternoon, then to near 23.0N 68.3W Wed night as a hurricane, then turn northward and continue to gradually strengthen, reaching near 27.2N 67.3W Thu night, near 30.5N 65W Fri night and N of the area by late Sat night. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N late Fri through Sat in its wake. $$ Stripling