000 AXNT20 KNHC 132324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 18.0N 64.1W at 13/2100 UTC or 60 NM ESE of St. Thomas, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Peak seas are near 17 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 63W and 67W. A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be near Bermuda by Friday. Strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by tonight to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday. Storm surge and very large surf produced by swell from Ernesto will impact Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight through early Wed, producing life threatening conditions along the coasts. Please read the latest HIGHSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 05N to 19N, moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is present at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W from 12N to 20N, across far eastern portions of the Eastern Pacific through southeast Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted generally from 12N to 22N between 83W and 92W, extending to the coasts of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the northern coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N and E of 20W to the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is developing across the Yucatan Peninsula and E of 91W. Isolated moderate convection is also developing across the northwest coast of Cuba. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds over much of the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf, and seas 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and Thu evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Ernesto. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted across much of the basin away from Ernesto with seas of 3-6 ft. Away from Ernesto, isolated moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted through the Mona Passage and south of Hispaniola. For the forecast, Ernesto will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.3N 65.9W Wed morning, move to 21.3N 67.6W Wed afternoon, 23.4N 68.6W Thu morning, 25.4N 68.7W Thu afternoon, 27.2N 67.9W Fri morning, and 29.1N 66.7W Fri afternoon. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves to 32.7N 65.3W Sat afternoon. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N late Fri through Sat in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Ernesto. A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 23.5N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft in E swell extending from 14N to 24N between 56W and 68W. Away from Tropical Storm Ernesto, isolated convection is observed via satellite over the northern Bahamas, the Straits of Florida, and the northern coast of Cuba. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 36N33W. A ridge extends from the high center W-SW along 29N/30N, favoring light to gentle winds near the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate E and NE winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for moderate to fresh, locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the Canary Islands. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge, currently extending from the central Atlantic W-SW to central Florida, will shift E and weaken over the next few days. Ernesto will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.3N 65.9W Wed morning, move to 21.3N 67.6W Wed afternoon, 23.4N 68.6W Thu morning, 25.4N 68.7W Thu afternoon, 27.2N 67.9W Fri morning, and 29.1N 66.7W Fri afternoon. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves to 32.7N 65.3W Sat afternoon. High pressure will gradually build westward along 20N late Fri through Sat in its wake. $$ ADAMS