000 AXNT20 KNHC 140441 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0441 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ernesto: At 1100 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest at 15 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 kt with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 110 nm from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently reported a sustained wind of 32 kt and a gust of 50 kt. Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico tonight through Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGHSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores high and the low pressures over the west Saharan will support gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of Agadir from 14/12 UTC to 15/00 UTC. For more information please visit: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32.5W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. A new tropical wave was included in the 12Z analysis along 46W from 06N to 16N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 09N to 13N between 45W to 49.5W. Recent ASCAT pass revealed fresh to localized strong winds. In addition, a recent Altimeter pass revealed 10 ft seas along the wave axis. This tropical wave is the northern vort of the wave that is over the eastern Atlantic and will likely dissipate in the next 24 to 48 hours. The axis of a tropical wave that was previously near 92W from 12N to 20N has now transitioned into the Eastern Pacific. For more information about this wave please read the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the northern coast of Nouadhibou near 21N16W to 11N47W. Convention along the trough is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is depicted across the Bay of Campeche E of 93W in association to a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate NE winds are over the eastern Bay of Campeche with seas 3 to 4 ft. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds over much of the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf, and seas 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Ernesto. A surface trough is analyzed over southern Cuba and is producing isolated moderate convection across the NW part of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted through the Windward Passage and the Mona Passage with seas 4 to 6 ft. Otherwise and away from Tropical Storm Ernesto, gentle to moderate winds are noted across much of the basin with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ernesto is near 18.8N 65.3W at 11 PM EDT, moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Ernesto will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.3N 66.7W Wed morning, reach near 22.4N 68.3W Wed evening, then turn northward and continue to gradually strengthen as it moves across the western Atlantic towards Bermuda. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward roughly along 20N late Fri into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Ernesto. A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 23.5N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft in E swell extending from 15N to 24N between 58W and 68W. Isolated convection is depicted between the western Bahamas and Cuba in association to a trough over eastern Florida. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 36N345W. A ridge extends from the high center W-SW along 29N/30N, favoring light to gentle winds near the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate E and NE winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft near the Canary Islands. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad and rather weak ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to central Florida, and will shift E and weaken over the next few days. Tropical Storm Ernesto is near 18.8N 65.3W at 11 PM AST, moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Ernesto will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.3N 66.7W Wed morning, reach near 22.4N 68.3W Wed evening, and continue to gradually strengthen as it moves to near 26.3N 68.3W Thu evening, near 29.9N 66.2W Fri evening, then pass very near Bermuda Sat and reach near 34N 64.5W Sat evening. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward along 20N late Fri into the weekend. A weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the western part of the area beginning late Wed, and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri. $$ KRV