385 AXNT20 KNHC 141650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Aug 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto: Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 20.5N 67.6W at 14/1500 UTC or 150 nm NW of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 28 ft across the NE quadrant. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday. Scattered to numerous rainbands are presently spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, and across the nearby coastal waters. These rainbands are producing strong to torrential rainfall. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores high and low pressure over the west Saharan Desert will support gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of Agadir from now until 15/00 UTC. For more information please visit: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 06N to 16N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is depicted from 07.5N to 15N between 45W and 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 21N17W and extends southwestward to 12N33W, then westward to 11N49W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convention is noted from 02N to 12N between 28W and the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Widely scattered moderate convection is noted across the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf south of 23N and west of 93W in association with both the nocturnal surface trough moving off of the Yucatan Peninsula and the far northern portion of a tropical wave now exiting the Bay of Campeche and entering the Eastern Pacific. Other scattered moderate convection extends from the Straits of Florida across the Florida Keys, into the central and eastern Gulf as well as near the southern Louisiana coastline in advance of an approaching weak cold front. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds over much of the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf, and seas 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Ernesto. Associated strong convection extends from 15N across the NE Caribbean and into the local Atlantic, between 62W and 69W. Fresh to strong southerly winds extends from the SE Caribbean east of 68W, northward across the Leeward Islands and Anegada Passage. Seas are 4 to 7 ft south of 15N there, and 7 to 10 ft north of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the Colombian Basin in the vicinity of both the Panama Low and the eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. A surface trough is analyzed from western Cuba southeastward to the Cayman Islands and eastward toward the Windward Passage, and is producing scattered showers across the NW part of the basin. Moderate NE winds are noted through the Windward Passage via satellite scatterometer data, along with seas 4 to 6 ft. Otherwise and away from Tropical Storm Ernesto, gentle to moderate east winds are noted across much of the basin with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, recently upgraded Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves to near 22.3N 68.7W this evening and to near 24.5N 69.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. A general northward motion at a slower forward speed while it gradually strengthens as it moves across the western Atlantic, reaching near Bermuda Sat morning. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward along 21N late Fri into the weekend, bringing a return to a more typical trade wind flow across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Ernesto. A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 23.5N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, and higher near Ernesto, in E swell extending from 18N to 25N between 60W and 71W. Away from Ernesto, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 36.5N30W. A ridge extends from the high center W-SW along 28N to Florida, favoring light to gentle anticyclonic winds near the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate E and NE winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N with seas 4 to 7 ft, except for fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft near the Canary Islands and near the coast of Morocco. S of 20N, Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. A weak front from near Bermuda to coastal NE Florida is drifting southward, and is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N to the front and west of 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge, extending from the central Atlantic W-SW to central Florida, will shift E and weaken through Thu. Recently upgraded Hurricane Ernesto will continue to strengthen as it moves to near 22.3N 68.7W this evening. It is expected to turn toward the north-northwest tonight, reaching to near 24.5N 69.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. A general northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected afterward, reaching to near 26.6N 68.6W Thu evening, to near 28.5N 67.2W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 30.4N 66.1W Fri evening and to near Bermuda Sat morning. A weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the northwestern part of the area beginning late Wed, and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri, producing moderate to fresh NE winds behind it. Large swell from Ernesto will spread W of 75W early Fri through Sat morning. $$ Adams