000 AXNT20 KNHC 142332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto: Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 21.7N 68.3W at 14/2100 UTC or 160 NM E of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Hurricane- force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Peak seas are estimated at 30 ft across the NE quadrant. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday. A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Scattered to numerous rainbands are presently spread across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti and across the nearby coastal waters. These rainbands are producing strong to torrential rainfall. Hurricane Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores high and low pressure over the west Saharan Desert will support gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of Agadir from now until 15/03 UTC. For more information please visit: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 04N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 06N to 16N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 19N16W and extends southwestward to 12N30W, then westward to 11N49W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convention is noted from 03N to 17N between 22W and the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is noted along a surface trough from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Isolated moderate convection is occurring across the Straits of Florida as well as near the southern Louisiana coastline in advance of an approaching weak cold front. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds over much of the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf and seas 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin through this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Ernesto. Associated strong convection extends from 17N across the NE Caribbean and into the local Atlantic, between 65W and 71W. Fresh to strong S winds extend from the SE Caribbean east of 68W, northward across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Seas are 4 to 7 ft south of 15N, and 7 to 10 ft north of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the Colombian Basin in the vicinity of both the Panama Low and the eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. A surface trough is analyzed from western Cuba southeastward to Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted through the Windward Passage along with seas 4 to 6 ft. Otherwise and away from Ernesto, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted. For the forecast, Ernesto will move to 23.5N 69.0W Thu morning and 25.7N 69.0W Thu afternoon, and continue to move northward away from the Caribbean through this weekend. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward along 21N late Fri into the weekend, bringing a return to a more typical trade wind flow across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Hurricane Ernesto. A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 26N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, and higher near Ernesto, in E swell extending from 17N to 26N between 60W and 71W. Away from Ernesto, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 38N30W. A ridge extends from the high center W-SW along 29N to Florida, favoring light to gentle winds near the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds prevail over much of the waters elsewhere N of 20N with seas 4 to 7 ft, except for strong to near Gale NE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft near the Canary Islands and near the coast of Morocco. S of 20N, Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto will see a turn toward the north-northwest and north tonight and on Thursday. A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane Ernesto will move to 23.5N 69.0W Thu morning, 25.7N 69.0W Thu afternoon, 27.7N 68.0W Fri morning, 29.5N 66.6W Fri afternoon, 31.3N 65.7W Sat morning, and 32.9N 65.4W Sat afternoon. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves to 37.0N 64.2W Sun afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the northwestern part of the basin and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri, producing moderate to fresh NE winds behind it. Large swell from Ernesto will spread W of 75W early Fri through Sat morning. $$ ADAMS