000 AXNT20 KNHC 150437 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Hurricane Ernesto... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 23.0N 68.9W at 15/0300 UTC or 150 nm NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 18N to 26N between 63W and 71W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are within 200 nm E semicircle, 120 nm SW quadrant, and 165 nm NW quadrant, with seas to 32 ft. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Agadir Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb Azores high and low pressure over the west Saharan Desert will support gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of Agadir from now until 15/0300 UTC. For more information please visit: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 04N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 06N to 16N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 19N16W and extends southwestward to 11N49W. Scattered moderate convention is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is noted along a surface trough from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. To the NE, a stationary front extends across Northern Florida from 31N87W to 29N83W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds over much of the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf and seas 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into early next week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Ernesto. Associated strong convection is currently affecting portions of Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds over the E Caribbean east of 71W, while light to gentle ne winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Moderate seas prevail E of 77W, and slight seas prevail W of 77W. For the forecast, Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves in a northerly motion at around 11 kt over the western Atlantic through the end of the week, passing very near Bermuda on Sat morning. In its wake, high pressure will gradually build westward along 21N late Fri into early next week, bringing a return to a more typical trade wind flow across the basin. A tropical wave near 50W is accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds. The wave will move through the Tropical N Atlantic waters and into the eastern Caribbean through Fri while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more information about Hurricane Ernesto. A broad wind surge has accompanied Ernesto for the past few days, with fresh to strong winds north of the storm extending to 27N. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas of 8 to 12 ft, and higher near Ernesto, extending from 19N to 26N between 63W and 72W. Away from Ernesto, a weak frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to north-central Florida. High pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 23N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N54W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the central and E Atlantic between 39W-60W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and slight seas prevail over much of the waters elsewhere E of 39W, except for strong to near gale NE winds and rough seas near the Canary Islands and near the coast of Morocco. S of 20N, Light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto is expected to turn toward the north-northwest then north tonight through Thu morning as it continues to strengthen, reaching near 24.7N 69.1W Thu morning, near 26.8N 68.6W Thu evening, near 28.6N 67.4W Fri morning, then pass very near Bermuda Sat morning. The weak frontal boundary over the W Atlantic will drift southward across the northwestern part of the area, and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri, producing moderate to fresh NE winds behind it. Large swell from Ernesto will spread W of 75W late Thu night through Sat morning. $$ ERA