000 AXNT20 KNHC 152332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 26.6N 68.4W at 15/0000 UTC or 390 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm NE and 120 nm SW semicircles of Ernesto. Maximum seas are 34 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda tonight. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa and its axis is along 19W/20W. The Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave, and it is well defined in the Tropical Wave Diagnostic. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mainly ahead of the wave axis. This wave will be added to the 0000 UTC analysis/surface map. A tropical wave is along 41W from 05N to 21N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection accompanies this wave. Another tropical wave is along 56W from 07N to 18N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with the wave, particularly from 10N to 15N between 53W and 58W. Moisture associated with this system will spread across the Windward Islands tonight, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and extends southwestward to 12N30W to 13N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convention is noted from 05N to 12N between 20W and 30W, and from 08N to 10N between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed over the NW Gulf near 28N93W while a weak stationary front extends from Central Florida to near New Orleans, Louisiana. The front is enhancing some convective activity over central and south Florida as well as across the waters near SE Louisiana. Light to gentle wind are noted across the Gulf region per scatterometer data with seas of 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will sag into the SE Gulf through Fri before stalling again and dissipating. High pressure behind it will support moderate to fresh winds and a slight building of seas in the NE Gulf. High pressure builds across the basin this weekend into early next week, centered near 24N with moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong SE winds from the ABC Island to about 15N, with moderate to fresh SE winds N of 15N to eastern Dominican Republic, including the Mona Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these wind speeds. Elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted while light to gentle winds dominate the NW part of the basin where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are seen over the Greater Antilles due to local effects. A tropical wave is approaching Barbados in the Windward Islands. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. For the forecast, Hurricane Ernesto will continue northward away from the Caribbean through the next few days with some lingering fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through tonight. High pressure builds in the wake of Ernesto thereafter with pulsing fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and typical trades and seas elsewhere into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about Hurricane Ernesto. The fresh to strong winds associated with the outer periphery of Hurricane Ernesto cover roughly the waters from 20N to 28.5N between 63W and 72W. This has produced a large wave field moving in synch with Ernesto, with seas 12 ft of greater dominating the waters from 22N to 29N between 65W and 74W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are reaching the central and SE Bahamas. Away from Ernesto, a weak frontal boundary extends from Bermuda to central Florida. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure located near the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and downwind to near 19N. Similar wind speeds are also observed S of the monsoon trough to about 04N between 18W and 27W, with fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough to about 08N between 30W and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are associated with the strongest winds N of 18N. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto will move to 27.6N 68.1W Fri morning, 29.5N 66.9W Fri afternoon, 31.3N 65.8W Sat morning approaching Bermuda, 32.9N 65.2W Sat afternoon very near Bermuda, then moving away to 34.5N 64.9W Sun morning. Large swells generated by Ernesto will spread westward to Bahamas and SE United States coast including Florida. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary from west of Ernesto to central Florida will drift southward and stall and dissipate from near the Central Bahamas to the upper Florida Keys through Fri evening. Conditions should improve across the basin Sun into early next week in the wake of Ernesto. $$ GR