176 AXNT20 KNHC 160618 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 27.1N 68.1W at 16/0300 UTC or 355 nm SSW of Bermuda, and moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas are peaking at 35 to 40 ft near the center, and 20 to 34 ft up to 60 nm further out from the center. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in a northeast semicircle up to 90 nm northeast of the center, scattered showers are seen in a southwest semicircle up to 50 nm from the center. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are present farther north, north of 28N between 64W and 69W. The current NNE motion will continue with a decrease in forward speed on Saturday, then follow by an increase in forward speed on Sun. This will bring Ernesto very close to Bermuda on Saturday before passing to the northeast on Sunday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength with a large wind field on Friday. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and beginning to reach Bermuda. These swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend. Expect life- threatening surf and rip current conditions at the above locations. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22W from 20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave from 06N to 11N between 23W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 20N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 36W and 44W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near 58W from 18N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 12N to 16N between 56W and 60W, including Barbados. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles from Fri afternoon through Sat morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 10N37W then turns northwestward to 14N48W. Other than the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, there is no significant convection near the trough. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough runs northwestward from near Fort Myers, Florida to near New Orleans, Louisiana. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident at the eastern and north- central Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends southward from a 1017 mb high south of Lake Charles, Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found at the northeastern and western Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will support moderate to fresh winds and a slight building of seas in the northeaster Gulf. Another high pressure building westward along 24N across the Gulf will support moderate or weaker winds, and mainly slight seas from this weekend into early next week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low near 21N82W is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba. A 1021 mb high near 30N53W is supporting a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the north- central basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 1 to 3 ft seas exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, as Hurricane Ernesto moves generally northward toward Bermuda the next few days, it will further weaken the aforementioned high near 30N53W. This should allow fresh to strong winds at the south-central basin to become moderate to fresh on Sun. High pressure strengthens in the wake of Ernesto will cause fresh to strong trades to return to the south-central basin by Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades with slight to moderate seas will persist into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for more information about Hurricane Ernesto. Outside the core influence of Ernesto, fresh to strong winds and 10 to 20 ft seas are present north of 23N between 62W and 75W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present north of 22N between 75W and the Florida-Georgia coast. A the central Atlantic, a 1021 mb high near 30N53W is supporting light to gentle winds and 5 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate to large swells north of 20N between 40W and 62W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 22N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to locally moderate NNE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto will move to 28.5N 67.1W Fri morning, 30.4N 65.9W Fri evening, 32.1N 65.1W Sat morning, 33.5N 64.8W Sat evening, 35.4N 64.1W Sun morning, and 38.2N 62.6W Sun evening. Ernesto will change little in intensity as it moves near 45.6N 54.6W late Mon. Large swells generated by Ernesto will spread westward to Bahamas and southeastern United States east coast including Florida. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary northwest of Ernesto to just northeast of Freeport in the Bahamas will remain stalled before dissipating through Fri evening. Conditions should improve across the basin Sun into early next week in the wake of Ernesto. $$ Chan