091 AXNT20 KNHC 161059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Aug 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 28.1N 67.0W at 16/0900 UTC or 280 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving NNE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are 42 ft near the center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is N of 24N between 62W and 69W. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just east of the Cabo Verde Islands extending from 05N to 20N with axis near 23W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 14N between 20W and 33W. A tropical wave extends from 13N to 20N with axis near 43W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 11N between 35W and 45W. A tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 59W from 19N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 11N to 18N between 56W and 60W. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles from this afternoon through Sat morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, curves southwestward to 10N35W then turns northwestward to 14N48W. Other than the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, there is no significant convection near the trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1016 mb is just behind a surface trough that extends from the Florida Panhandle adjacent waters SE to the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are to the east of the trough over the NE basin. Winds of similar speeds are also in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with slight seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support moderate to fresh winds and slight building seas in the NE Gulf through tonight. Weak high pressure and associated ridging will then prevail through Tue with moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure and associated ridging in the central Atlantic extending SW to Puerto Rico adjacent waters and weak high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico are supporting moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide, highest in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean will reach strong speeds offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean will then resume Sun and prevail through the end of the forecast period as high pressure builds in the wake of Hurricane Ernesto. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, weakest in the NW basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for more information about Hurricane Ernesto. For Tropical Waves information, see section above. Hurricane Ernesto is near 28.1N 67.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Aside from Ernesto, the remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Bermuda High, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas in the central and eastern subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto will move to 29.6N 66.2W this afternoon, 31.5N 65.2W Sat morning, 32.8N 64.8W Sat afternoon, 34.2N 64.4W Sun morning, 36.2N 63.6W Sun afternoon, and 39.4N 61.6W Mon morning. Ernesto will weaken as a post- tropical cyclone near 47.0N 51.0W early Tue. Large swells generated by Ernesto will spread westward to Bahamas and SE United States coast including Florida. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front NW of Ernesto to just NE of Freeport in the Bahamas will remain stalled before dissipating through this evening. Conditions will gradually improve across the basin Sat night into Sun in the wake of Ernesto. $$ Ramos