000 AXNT20 KNHC 161657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 29.5N 66.4W at 16/1500 UTC or 190 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are 42 ft near the center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is N of 25N between 62W and 69W. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re- intensification is possible by early next week. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is passing through the Cabo Verde Islands extending from 04.5N to 20N with axis near 24W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 21W and 33W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 19.5N with axis near 45W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 11N between 42W and 46W. A tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles, with axis near 60W from 18.5N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 59W to 61.5W between 14N and 16N. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles this afternoon through Sat morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, curves southwestward to 12N34W then turns westward to 13.5N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 600 nm south of the monsoon trough, generally between 32.5W and 42.5W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys west and northwestward to near 29N89W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and in the vicinity of the surface trough. To the northeast of this surface trough in the northeastern Gulf, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are analyzed. Another surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is propagating westward, generating scattered moderate convection generally south of 23.5N and west of 94W. Otherwise, High pressure of 1015 mb continues to support light to gentle E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue across the Gulf through Sun, supporting mostly gentle breezes and slight seas. Looking ahead, light northerly breezes may briefly follow a weak cold front expected to move into the northern Gulf Mon. The front will stall and dissipate through late Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure and associated ridging in the central Atlantic extending SW into the Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the central to southeastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide, highest in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean will reach strong speeds offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean will then resume Sun and prevail through the end of the forecast period as high pressure builds north of the area. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, weakest in the northwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for more information about Hurricane Ernesto and more information on tropical waves in the basin. A broad swath of fresh to strong winds surrounds Ernesto, generally north of 23.5N between 59W and 70W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft also persist around Ernesto generally north of 21.5N between 60.5W and 80W. Higher winds and seas continue closer to the center of Ernesto. Otherwise, the remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Bermuda High, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas in the central and eastern subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto will move to 31.0N 65.5W this evening, 32.5N 64.9W Sat morning, and to 33.8N 64.5W Sat evening, then continue well north of the area through the early part of the week. Large swells generated by Ernesto will spread westward to Bahamas and SE United States coast including Florida. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front NW of Ernesto to the northern Bahamas will dissipate through this evening. Conditions will gradually improve across the basin Sun in the wake of Ernesto. $$ Adams