000 AXNT20 KNHC 171040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 32.3N 64.8W at 17/0900 UTC or 0 nm N of Bermuda, moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas are peaking at 41 ft near the center. Numerous moderate convection is from 31N to 34N between 64W and 66W, and from 34N to 38N between 57W and 65W. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands from 05N to 19N with axis near 27W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 11N between 22W and 35W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 19N with axis near 49W, moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 08N between 39W and 48W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 64W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are affecting the NE Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. The wave is going to move across the eastern and central Caribbean through this weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and then curves southwestward to 11N35W then turns northwestward to 15N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 20N between 12W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, which is supporting mainly ligh to gentle winds, except for moderate E winds over the NE basin and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Diffluent flow aloft support scattered showers over the north-central offshore zones as well as the far SE Gulf, including the Florida Keys and Straits. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue across the Gulf through Sun, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over the far NE Gulf Sun evening ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move into the NE Gulf early on Mon. The front will stall briefly Mon night and then move E of the area Tue afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Except for the NE Caribbean where scattered showers are ongoing due to the passage of a tropical wave and the adjacent waters of western Jamaica where similar shower activity is ongoing, the remainder Caribbean is devoid of convection. Ridging from the Azores High continues to build and affect the region, thus resulting in the continuation of moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the E basin with slight seas to 3 ft while light to gentle winds are ongoing over the NW Caribbean with slight seas. For the forecast, the Azores High associated ridge will build westward as Hurricane Ernesto continues to move N of 31N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over NW Colombia will support the continuation of moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds in the south-central region Sun into Tue night. Moderate to rough seas are forecast for the south-central basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected along with slight to moderate wave heights. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for more information about these features. Hurricane Ernesto is near 32.4N 65.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Although the center of Ernesto is N of the area, tropical storm force winds and very rough seas continue to affect the offshore waters N of 27N between 56W and 74W. Over the subtropical waters between 20W and 55W, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE to E and seas are moderate. East of 20W and N of 25N, fresh to strong NE winds continue to affect the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, Ernesto will move to 33.3N 64.5W this afternoon, then continue to move well north of the region through the early part of the week, before weakening late Tue. Large swells generated by Ernesto will continue to spread westward to the Bahamas and the southeast United States coast through Mon. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida late Sun into Mon, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area Sun night, then briefly stall Mon night and weaken through mid week. $$ Ramos