000 AXNT20 KNHC 171750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ernesto is centered near 33.0N 64.2W at 17/1800 UTC or 50 nm NE of Bermuda, moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. In TAFB Forecast Waters, seas are in excess of 12 ft are north of 29N between 59W and 69W. Ernesto continues to move away from the TAFB Forecast Waters. An acceleration toward the north- northeast should begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east- northeast occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is nearly stationary just west of the Cabo Verde Islands from 05N to 21N with axis near 27W. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 06N to 15N east of 27W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to 20N with axis along 52W, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 68W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over and just south of Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and then curves southwestward to 12N31W then continues to 12N51W. Convection is described in the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extending from the Straits of Florida to the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a line of scattered moderate convection from 24N81W to 27N91W. A weak pressure gradient allows for light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern will continue across the Gulf through Sun, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over the far NE Gulf Sun evening ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move into the NE Gulf early on Mon. The front will stall briefly Mon night and then move E of the area Tue afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the southwest Caribbean from Panama north to 11N between the coasts of Colombia and Costa Rica. A relaxed pressure gradient across the Caribbean currently supports gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas across the basin. Trades may pulse to locally fresh speeds at time in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure will build N of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure over NW Colombia will support moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds in the south- central region Sun through Tue night. Moderate to rough seas are forecast for the south-central basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected along with slight to moderate wave heights. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for more information about these features. Seas greater than 8 ft in N swell, associated with Hurricane Ernesto, continue to impact offshore waters in the W Atlantic north of 25N between 56W and 74W. A surface trough extends from 30N62W across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, with scattered moderate convection along the trough over and west of the central Bahamas. Elsewhere, this morning's satellite scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ernesto is north of the area near 32.9N 64.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Ernesto will continue to move further from the area. Large swells generated by Ernesto will spread westward to the Bahamas and the southeast United States coast through Mon. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida late Sun into Mon, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area Sun night, then briefly stall Mon night and weaken through mid week. $$ Mahoney