000 AXNT20 KNHC 180550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Ernesto is downgraded to a tropical storm and is north of 31N, within the Ocean Prediction Center High Seas Forecast Area. It is centered near 33.9N 63.3W at 18/0300 UTC or 120 nm NE of Bermuda, and moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking from 23 to 25 ft near the center. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 50 nm from the center. Swell generated by Ernesto will continue to cause hazardous surf and dangerous rip current conditions for Bermuda, the Bahamas and east coast of the United States and Canada through Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website - https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest Ernesto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 30W from 22N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 09N between 25W and 36W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is seen based on the latest analysis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Hispaniola southward to near Colombia-Venezuela border. It is moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 10N40W then turns northwestward to 12N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 07N to 14N between the central Africa coast and 23W, and from 06N to 09N between 43W and 47W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Two modest surface troughs are inducing isolated strong thunderstorms near New Orleans and at the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. A 1017 mb high is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned high will sustain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas through Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over the far northeastern Gulf Sun evening, ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move into the northeastern Gulf early on Mon. The front will stall briefly Mon night and then move east of the area Tue afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Modest convergent trade winds are producing isolated thunderstorms near the lee of Cuba and Jamaica, and at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area. The pressure gradient between this high and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trades over the central basin through Thu, becoming fresh to strong in the south-central basin Sun through Tue night. Moderate to rough seas are forecast for the south-central basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected along with slight to moderate seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm Ernesto in the north Atlantic. A surface trough runs northeastward from near the northwest Bahamas to 31N65W. Converging southerly winds east of this feature are generating widely scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 58W and 64W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft exist near this feature, north of 26N between 57W and 66W. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are found north of 20N between 55W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For north of 20N between 25W and 55W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are present. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft dominate north of 25N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. To the south including the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen from 14N to 25N between the central Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate to large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Ernesto will continue to move further north from the area. However, large swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the Bahamas and the southeast United States coast through Sun night into early Mon. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida late Sun into Mon, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area Sun night, then briefly stall Mon night and weaken through mid week. $$ Chan