000 AXNT20 KNHC 181038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands from 06N to 20N with axis near 31W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 25W and 40W. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N to 20N with axis near 54W, moving west around 15 kt. The wave is devoid of convection. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 72W, moving west around 10-15 kt. The wave is devoid of convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and then curves southwestward to 10N40W then turns northwestward to 12N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 16N between 12W and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, which is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas basin- wide. Otherwise, a pair of surface troughs, one over the NW Gulf and the other over the SE Gulf are generating widely scattered showers in those regions. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue across the Gulf through Thu night, supporting mainly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over the far NE Gulf this evening ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move into the NE Gulf early on Mon. The front will stall briefly Mon night and then move E of the area Tue afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging associated with the Azores High continues to build and affect the region, thus resulting in the continuation of moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the E basin with slight seas to 3 ft while light to gentle winds are ongoing over the NW Caribbean with slight seas. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build N of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure over NW Colombia will support moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean through Thu night, increasing to fresh to strong speeds in the south-central region today through Tue night. Moderate to rough seas are forecast for the south- central basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected along with slight to moderate wave heights. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ernesto is north of the area near 34.6N 63.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Although the center of Ernesto is N of the area, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas to 10 ft continue to affect the offshore waters N of 30N between 56W and 70W. Over the subtropical waters between 27W and 50W, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE to E and seas are moderate. East of 27W and N of 26N, fresh to strong NE winds continue to affect the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, Ernesto will continue to move further north from the area. However, large swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the Bahamas and the southeast United States coast through tonight into early Mon. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida late today into Mon, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area tonight, then briefly stall Mon night and weaken through mid week. $$ Ramos