000 AXNT20 KNHC 190602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 21N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 09N between 36W and 46W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles near 62W from 20N southward to eastern Venezuela. It is moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is present due to dry air at the low to mid levels. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from near Jamaica southward to northwestern Colombia. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring near Haiti, and offshore from Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, runs southwestward to 09N41W then northwestward to 12N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 06N to 10N between 24W and 34W, and from 09N to 16N between the Senegal-Guinea coast and 21W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is producing isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. A modest surface ridge runs west-southwestward from a 1013 mb high over the Alabama-Georgia border to near Brownsville, Texas. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident at the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are found at the southeast and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will support gentle to locally moderate breezes and slight seas through Fri night. A weak cold front will move into the northeastern Gulf early on Mon and stall before moving east of the area Tue afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge to the north near 25N continues to support trade winds across much of the basin. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the lee of Cuba, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will persist at the central basin through Wed, strongest off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia, as the pressure gradient strengthens between the ridge to the north and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate to rough seas are forecast for the south-central basin through midweek. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Ocean Prediction Center High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for the latest information on Hurricane Ernesto in the north Atlantic. Modest convergent southerly winds are producing isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 27N between 62W and 73W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores High across 31N53W to the central Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Farther south from 12N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are noted, including waters near the Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, large swells generated by Ernesto in the north Atlantic will slowly subside across waters north of 22N through Mon. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida into Mon ahead of a weak cold front. The front will briefly stall Mon night and weaken through mid week. $$ Chan