000 AXNT20 KNHC 191034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 21N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 09N between 38W and 46W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles near 63W from 20N southward to eastern Venezuela. It is moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring in association with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from near Jamaica southward to northwestern Colombia. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the waters of Panama through Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast at 18N16W, runs southwestward to 09N40W then northwestward to 12N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 29W and 33W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W and 46W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters of Panama through Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front moving into the NE Gulf is producing moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds and scattered moderate to locally strong convection. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident across much of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will stall before moving E of the region on Tue, supporting gentle to moderate breezes. Weak ridging over the remainder of the basin will support gentle to locally moderate breezes and slight seas through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft over the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present in the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the lee of Cuba, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will occur over the central Caribbean through Wed, strongest off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia, as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia. Moderate to rough seas are forecast for the south-central basin through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Ocean Prediction Center High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for the latest information on Hurricane Ernesto in the north Atlantic. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb Azores High across 31N53W to the central Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Farther south from 12N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are noted, including waters near the Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, large swells generated by Ernesto in the northern waters will slowly subside today. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida this morning ahead of a weak cold front. The front will briefly stall tonight and weaken through mid week. $$ ADAMS