000 AXNT20 KNHC 191704 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 05N to 21N, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 41W and 48W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is passing through the Virgin Islands near 65W, 20N southward to central Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring in association with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near 18.5N southward into Panama. It is moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 19N and west of 81W, impacting the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast at 20N16W and then runs southwestward to near 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and within 500 nm south of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front dropping into the northern Gulf is generating scattered moderate convection across much of the Gulf north of 27N. A pocket of gentle to moderate SW winds is also observed behind the front in the far NE Gulf. Two surface troughs, one from the southern Florida Peninsula westward to near 25N85W, and the other from 24N89W to 24N96W. Both of these troughs are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection along both trough axes. Another diurnal surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf is favoring light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak cold front over the NE Gulf will briefly stall before moving E of the region on Tue. A weak pressure pattern across the Gulf will support gentle to locally moderate breezes and slight seas through this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh, locally strong trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft over the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present in the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades, and moderate to rough seas, over the south central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected over much of the Caribbean, except light to gentle over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Ocean Prediction Center High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for the latest information on Hurricane Ernesto in the north Atlantic. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection associated with these features in the Atlantic Basin. A surface trough extending from 27.5N73W to the southern Florida Peninsula is leading to the development of scattered moderate convection along and within 60 nm of the trough axis. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores High to the central Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft north of across much of the basin. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For portions of the Atlantic north of 20N and west of 55W, light to gentle SE to E winds prevail along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida today ahead of a weak cold front. The front will briefly stall tonight and weaken through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail elsewhere. $$ Adams