000 AXNT20 KNHC 201033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is off the Africa coast near 19W from 25N southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 15N between the Senegal- Gambia coast and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 21N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found east of the wave from 14N to 17N between 38W and 42W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from near the Mona Passage southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 kt. Minimal convection is noted in association with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from just south of the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across the offshore waters of Belize and Honduras, including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 21N17W, then runs southwestward across 15N33W to near 10N48W. Isolated moderate convection is noted near the trough from 09N to 16N between 30W and 42W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front curves westward from the Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of the front in the northeastern Gulf. A modest but persistent surface trough is triggering similar conditions at the west-central Gulf. Weak ridging is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across the northwestern, central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will linger over the north-central Gulf through midweek. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge to the north near 25N continues to support a fair trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the basin. Tight gradient between the ridge and a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft across the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the lee of Cuba, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will continue over the south-central basin through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are expected over much of the Caribbean this week, with light to gentle speeds over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Ocean Prediction Center High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for the latest information on Hurricane Ernesto in the north Atlantic. A surface trough extends eastward from central Florida across the northwest Bahamas to near 29N72W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 100 nm south of this feature. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1027 mb Azores High across 31N52W and the central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature is maintaining gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE to SSW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are present from 08N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. Gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate to large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will occur off the coast of northeast Florida today before a weak front moves east of the region on Wed. Moderate to locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will occur across much of the basin this week. $$ ADAMS