000 AXNT20 KNHC 202106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean just offshore the west coast of Africa near 19W/20W from 25N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 14W and 24W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean approaching the Lesser Antilles near 56W/57W from 23N southward to just offshore Suriname, moving west at around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted near the tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 78W from eastern Cuba near 21N southward to near the border of Colombia and Panama, moving west at 25 kt. Some nearby thunderstorms are noted over western Jamaica with isolated showers and thunderstorms west of 80W toward the coast of Central America. A tropical wave has moved from the NW Caribbean Sea to across the Yucatan Peninsula near 89W/90W from 20N southward to across the border of Belize and Guatemala, moving west at around 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection dots nearby land areas but no deep convection is noted over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at 23N16W to across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N23W to 16N45W. No ITCZ is noted in the Atlantic Ocean. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 24W and 42W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean waters of Panama and Costa Rica from 11.5N southward and into the Eastern Pacific. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is draped across the NE Gulf with the tail-end of the front stalled from 28N89W to the southeast Texas coast. A pre-frontal trough was analyzed about 30-60 nm south of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present near and ahead of the frontal trough. The Yucatan nocturnal trough has drifted westward to the central Bay of Campeche near 93W, while another surface trough was analyzed just offshore of Veracruz, Mexico with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted between the two troughs. Weak cyclonic flow surrounds all of these features, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, the front will completely stall tonight into Wed morning and linger across the northern Gulf through the rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will persist near this boundary over the next few days, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends from the NE Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas. This ridge extends north of the basin along 27N, and continues to support a typical trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the basin. A tight pressure gradient exists between the ridge, between the two tropical waves, and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia, and is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft across the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate trades persist elsewhere, except light and variable in the SW Caribbean south of 11N away from any convection. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will continue over the south-central basin through Wed as a strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a central Atlantic ridge persists. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over the rest of the Caribbean this week. Light to gentle winds with slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, convergence zone, persists across the SW N Atlantic waters, west of a line from near Bermuda to the Central Bahamas and to the Florida Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are across these same waters, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted from 15N to 25N between 50W and 60W near a tropical wave described above, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Similar winds are north of 20N between the coast of Africa and 30W, except locally strong between Morocco and the Canary Islands due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the open Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will push off the NE Florida coast tonight, bringing moderate winds on either side of the front. The front will stall by Wed and linger off the NE Florida coast through the rest of the week. Expect showers and thunderstorms off the Florida coast over the new few days, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will occur across much of the basin this week. $$ Lewitsky