000 AXNT20 KNHC 210550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 26N southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: inland Senegal and Gambia scattered to numerous strong is within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is about 230 nm to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 23N between 49W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 22N southward, moving westward 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between this tropical wave and the 90W/91W tropical wave, from 13N to 23N. A tropical wave is along 90W/91W, from 22N in the Yucatan Peninsula southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in parts of the SW Gulf of Mexico, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 13N24W, to 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from 13N43W, to 13N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 30W eastward; within 440 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and 54W; and within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through north central Florida, to the north central Gulf of Mexico, exiting through the upper Texas Gulf coast. A surface trough is from 60 nm to 75 nm to the south of the stationary front. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is mostly from 22N to the surface trough. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 22N northward. A 1016 mb high pressure center is off the middle Texas Gulf coast. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is stalled across the NE Gulf from 29N83W through 27N89W to the southwest Louisiana coast. This front will linger across the northern Gulf through the rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will persist near this boundary over the next few days, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected across the remainder of the Gulf through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate convective precipitation, are between 60W and 80W. Rough seas are from 10.5N to 14N between 70W and 80W. Slight seas are from 17N southward from 68W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 80W eastward, and from 12N to 17N between 80W and 83W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 14N southward between 73W and 76W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from Jamaica and Hispaniola southward between 70W and 80W. An exception is for moderate easterly winds from 16N to 18N between 73W and 76W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 19N southward from 83W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 73W along the border of Venezuela and Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 75W westward. Numerous strong is from 07N to 09N between 74W and 76W in Colombia, and near the border of Colombia and Venezuela from 08N to 09N between 72W and 74W. Fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will continue over the south-central basin through Wed as a strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a central Atlantic ridge persists. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean into this weekend. Light to gentle winds with slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge passes through 32N58W 26N68W, to 23N80W in the Straits of Florida. The GFS model for 250 mb, and for 500 mb, shows cyclonic wind flow that is between 75W and the Florida Panhandle from 26N northward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the west of 22N79W beyond 31N65W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N northward from 34W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 15N northward between 34W and 60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh southerly winds are from 12N17W 12N34W 09N51W southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast tonight, bringing moderate winds on either side of the front. The front will stall by Wed and linger off the NE Florida coast through the rest of the week. Expect showers and thunderstorms off the Florida coast over the new few days, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will occur across much of the basin into this weekend. $$ mt/ea