000 AXNT20 KNHC 211036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean just offshore the west coast of Africa near 20W from 25N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 18N between 13W and 24W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean approaching the Lesser Antilles near 58W from 23N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 83W from 21N southward to Panama, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted south of 12N off the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave has moved into the Bay of Campeche near 92W from 21N southward, moving west at around 20 kt. Isolated convection is occurring in far southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at 15N17W to near 13N43W. The ITCZ then extends from 13N43W to 13N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 22W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered moderate to locally strong convection south of 12N off the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the NE Gulf with the tail-end of the front stalled from 27N90W to the southeast Texas coast. A pre-frontal trough was analyzed about 30-60 nm south of the front. Isolated convection is noted near the front. Weak cyclonic flow surrounds all of these features, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, the stationary front will linger over the northern Gulf of Mexico this week, supporting showers and thunderstorms near the boundary over the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected into this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends from the NE Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas. This ridge extends north of the basin along 27N, and continues to support a typical trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the basin. Fresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft continue as a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia persists. Gentle to moderate trades persist elsewhere, except light and variable in the SW and NW Caribbean away from any convection. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will continue over the south-central basin today. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over central and eastern portions of the basin through this weekend, with light to gentle winds and slight seas over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front off the coast of NE Florida is supporting moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are noted across a wide swath from 15N to 25N west of 35W and seas of 5 to 7 ft. Similar winds are north of 20N between the coast of Africa and 35W, except locally strong NE winds between Morocco and the Canary Islands due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the open Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will occur ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast today. A stationary front will then stall through the rest of the week, supporting showers and thunderstorms near the boundary over the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this weekend. $$ ADAMS