000 AXNT20 KNHC 212036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 25W from 23N southward near the western Cabo Verde Islands, moving west around 10 kt. A weak 1009 mb low is nearby at 18N24.5W. Isolated moderate convection is near the low with additional convection described below. A tropical wave has pushed into the SW N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea near 63W just east of the Anegada Passage from 23N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No substantial deep convection is associated with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the far NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras near 87W/88W from 20N southward to Central America, moving west at around 20 kt. No substantial deep convection is associated with this tropical wave over water, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America enhanced by the presence of the tropical wave combined with daytime heating. A tropical wave which was previously analyzed near 94W has become diffuse and is no longer discernible as it approached high pressure over east-central Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the Senegal coast near Dakar at 15N17W to 12.5N35W to 10N49W. The ITCZ then extends from 10N49W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 12W and 40W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the Caribbean border of Costa Rica and Panama near 09.5N83W to a 1006 mb low over northern Colombia near 10N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW Caribbean. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped across the Gulf from the W coast of Florida near 27N82W to a weak 1014 mb low pressure area near 26N89.5W to near Houston, Texas at 29.5N95W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed about 75 nm SE of the front to the east of the low pressure area. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are also in the western Bay of Campeche and from 24N to 27N between 94W and 96W. Winds, away from the convection, are light to gentle with 1-2 ft seas across the whole Gulf. For the forecast, a stationary front will linger over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between ridging from the Bermuda-Azores High north of the Greater Antilles to the Colombian Low is forcing fresh to locally strong trades over the central Caribbean, as well as in the Lee of the Windward and Mona Passages. Elsewhere, the trades are only gentle to moderate. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NW and eastern Caribbean, while seas are 6 to 10 ft over the central and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure near Colombia will weaken overnight into Thu morning. The fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean will dissipate by Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over central and eastern portions of the basin through this weekend. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from well offshore the Carolinas southwestward through 31N77W to near the Space Coast of Florida at 29N81W. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm E-SE of the front, with moderate to locally fresh winds there, and 4 to 6 ft seas. Ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High extends from the Central Bahamas east-northeastward to beyond 31N60W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressures over the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough is forcing moderate to fresh trades across the Atlantic forecast waters from 15N to 31N, except near the ridge itself where gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas prevail. Funneling of the winds through the Canary Islands is causing NE winds up to strong breeze conditions. Moderate to fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft elsewhere equatorward of the ridging, except 3 to 5 ft south of 15N and west of 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front draped off the NE Florida coast will linger in this area through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this weekend. $$ Lewitsky