000 AXNT20 KNHC 220600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough southward between 15W and 34W. Other nearby precipitation is close to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 510 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A 90W tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 15N to 17N within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Mauritania, near 16N17W, to 12N35W 13N50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 30W and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 30 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 35W and 50W, and from 13N to 16N between 50W and 57W. A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 08N southward. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front passes through north central Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, beyond the upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from the stationary front southward. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, cover the entire area. A stationary front extending from north-central Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico and northwestward to inland NE Texas will change little through late Fri and dissipate Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, accompany an Hispaniola-to-SW Caribbean Sea trough. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 75W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the central one-third of the area; and from 21N in the Atlantic Ocean southward into the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for gentle winds: from 09N79W- 10N74W southward, and from 20N northward, from Jamaica westward. Moderate seas cover much of the area. An exception is for slight seas: from 19N northward from 80W westward; and within 150 nm of the coast of South America from 70W eastward. Moderate to rough seas were from 16N southward between 75W and the coast of Central America, earlier in the afternoon on Wednesday. The pressure gradient between Central Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure near Colombia will weaken overnight into Thu morning. The fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over central and eastern portions of the basin through this weekend. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb 31N75W low pressure center, beyond the Florida coast that is near 29.5N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 73W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward. Moderate to rough seas are from 22N northward between 25W and 35W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area that is from 70W eastward. Slight seas are from 70W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 180 nm on either side of 25N44W 27N35W 30N20W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 13N40W-15N60W to 31N45W-20N70W-25N74W. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 04N southward between 35W and 43W. Fresh to strong SW winds are: from 07N to 12N between Africa and 21W; and from 10N to the monsoon trough between the 26W/27W tropical wave and 35W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1014 mb near 31N75W southwestward to inland NE Florida. The front will linger in this area through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this weekend. $$ mt/ja