000 AXNT20 KNHC 221037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W from 07N to 20N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N to 12N, and within 30 nm of the southern portion of the wave from 08N to 09N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 65W south of 22N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis. The northern portion of an eastern Pacific tropical wave that is along 92W extends northward to over the eastern Bay of Campeche near 22N. It is moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are near this portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N17W west-southwestward to 12N31W to 12N40W and to 13N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 30W and 34W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 35W and 41W and between 47W and 50W. A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 05N to 08N. Isolated showers are possible from 07N to 08N between 50W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends from north-central Florida to across the eastern and central Gulf areas. It then stretches northwestward to inland NE Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the south-central Gulf waters, and over the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are over the basin under relatively weak pressure. For the forecast, the weak stationary front will change little through late Fri and dissipate Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur near this boundary through Fri, possibly producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather narrow upper-level trough extends from north of the area near the Bahamas south-southwestward to eastern Cuba and to near 15N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 16N to 20N between 75W and 82W, including the waters adjacent to Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Similar activity is from just along the coast of the Dominican Republic, south from there to 16N. This activity also extends eastward to the Mona Passage and to the central and western sections of Puerto Rico. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed along 09N reaching to NW Colombia. Increasing numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the water south of 11N and east of 81W to NW Colombia. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are north of 16N and between 69W and 71W. Similar winds are over the northern Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the rest of the central Caribbean while gentle to moderate trade winds are over the southwestern Caribbean. Mostly gentle trade wind are elsewhere. Moderate seas are over the majority of the basin, except for slight seas north of 19N and west of 80W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure near Colombia will weaken this morning allowing for the fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean to diminish. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over central and eastern portions of the basin through this weekend. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 65W will move across the rest of the basin through Sun night. Scattered showers and isolated are possible with the wave, more likely in the eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N72W southwestward to inland NE Florida, and continues from there to the Gulf of Mexico. Increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted to the northwest of a line from 31N72W to 27N80W. A narrow upper-level trough extends from 27N73W south-southwestward to the central Caribbean Sea. Increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also evident from 20N to 25N between 61W and 73W. Broad high pressure is present over the eastern and central sections of the basin, with its associated anticyclonic wind flow covering the areas generally north of about 21N and east of 71W. Moderate to rough seas are north of 22N between 25W and 35W, and also over the rest of the area east of 70W. Slight seas are west of 70W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are within 180 nm on either side of a line from 25N44W to 27N35W and to 30N20W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are north of 13N and between 40W and 74W. Fresh to strong southeast winds are south of 04N and between 35W and 43W. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 07N to 12N between Africa and 21W, and from 10N to the monsoon trough between the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave along 27N/28W and 35W. Moderate or weaker winds are over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will linger in this area through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas will continue through the next few days. $$ Aguirre