000 AXNT20 KNHC 221645 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 07N to 20.5N. It is moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 24W and 33W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 68W from 22.5N southward to western Venezuela. It is moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed generally from 14.5N to 18.5N between 65W and 78W. The northern portion of an eastern Pacific tropical wave along 94W extends northward over the Bay of Campeche to near 21N. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are near this portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Mauritania near 20N16.5W and then extends west- southwestward to 17N27W, then southwestward to 12.5N31W, and then westward to 12N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 300 nm of the trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from north-central Florida across the central and northern Gulf to southeast Texas. Scattered moderate convection is developing south of the trough, generally north of 25N and east of 90W. Away from the front, a weak pressure gradient remains in place across the Gulf leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, a stationary front extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico will change little through late Fri and dissipate Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur near this boundary through Fri, possibly producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information regarding convection in the eastern Caribbean. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring over the southwest Caribbean in the vicinity of both the Panama Low and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough, generally south of 12N and west of 75W. An upper-level trough is also aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, generally W of 78W and north of 15N. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed via satellite scatterometer data across much of the central Caribbean between 70W and 80W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across much of this area. Across the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over central and eastern portions of the Caribbean through this weekend. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 68W will continue to move westward across the basin through Sun night. Scattered showers and isolated are possible with the wave, more likely in the eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 30N80W southwestward to NE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is observed developing along and within 200 nm of the front. Convergent surface flow is also leading to the development of some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits. An upper- level trough is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the waters east of these islands generally from 18N to 26N between 61W and 73W. The 1027 mb Bermuda-Azores high continues to dominate much of the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail across much of the Atlantic from 05N to 30N west of 50W. Across the waters east of 50W, moderate to fresh E to NE winds prevail, with locally strong winds occurring between the Canary Islands. Seas across much of the Atlantic are 4 to 7 ft, with areas of seas up to 8 ft occurring across an area from 30W to 45W between 22N and 27N. Another area of seas up to 8 ft is analyzed from the African coast to about 30.5W between 8.5N and 13N. For the forecast, the stationary front currently over NE Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters will linger in this area through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through the next few days. $$ Adams