000 AXNT20 KNHC 222047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 32W/33W from 21N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 24W and 30W, and from 07N to 08N between 24W and 28W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 73W from 22N southward across western Haiti to near the border of Colombia and Venezuela, moving rapidly west around 25 kt. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed well ahead of the wave and south of Jamaica, with additional convection noted over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The northern portion of a tropical wave is near 94W/95W from 21N southward across the central Bay of Campeche and Chivela Pass, continuing into the tropical eastern north Pacific Ocean, with a slowed west motion at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the axis along the coast and inland. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Mauritania near 20N16.5W to near 18N28W to 12N33W and terminating near 12N48W. No ITCZ axis is noted in the Atlantic Ocean. Other than the convection described with the tropical wave above, no significant convection is noted with the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Gulf near 25N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed along the front and within 120-150 nm SE-S. Away from the front, a weak pressure gradient remains in place across the Gulf leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the stationary front will change little through late Fri and dissipate Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur near this boundary through Fri, possibly producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are possible off the coast of the Florida Panhandle tonight into Fri morning. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring over the southwest Caribbean in the vicinity of 1009 mb low pressure near the coast of western Panama at 09N81.5W and the monsoon trough extending from the Pacific Ocean through the low to northern Colombia, generally south of 12N. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the central Caribbean, locally strong just south of Hispaniola. Winds of moderate or weaker prevail across the remainder of the basin, locally fresh near the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 6 ft from south of Hispaniola southwestward to across the SW Caribbean, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through most of the Caribbean through early next week. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 73W will continue to move westward across the basin through the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated are possible with the wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N78W southwestward to NE Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across much of the waters north of 26N and west of 77W. Fresh to strong winds are noted west of the front, mainly north of our area, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. An upper-level trough and nearby tropical wave is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands northward. The Bermuda-Azores high continues to dominate much of the Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh trades are noted from 20N to 31N between Africa and 50W, locally strong between the Canary Islands and offshore Morocco. Seas are mainly 6 to 8 ft across these waters. Fresh to locally strong SW flow is noted south of the monsoon trough to 10N between 25W and 35W with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters along with 3 to 6 ft, except fresh winds offshore northern Hispaniola. For the forecast, the front will linger in this area through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Meanwhile, strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola in the afternoon and evening today and Friday, ending by Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through the next few days. $$ Lewitsky