449 AXNT20 KNHC 230553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is close to the monsoon trough also. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 15N to 24N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave. A 94W/95W tropical wave is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N southward from 90W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Senegal, to 16N27W 12N40W 12N45W. The ITCZ continues from 12N45W, to 10N48W 09N52W 09N57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 50W eastward, and elsewhere from 08N to 14N between 45W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front passes through north central Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from the stationary front southward from 90W eastward, and from 26N southward from 90W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, cover the entire area. A stationary front extending across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly dissipate. Moderate to locally fresh winds are possible off the coast of the Florida Panhandle into Fri morning. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are from the 74W/75W tropical wave westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 70W westward. Fresh to moderate NE winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the eastern one-third of the area. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds, and slight to moderate seas, have been in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC, are: 0.46 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through most of the Caribbean through early next week. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N77W, to 29N82W in Florida, toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, to locally strong, is from 25N northward from 70W westward. Upper level diffluent wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are from 20N to 26N between 65W and 70W. This precipitation is about 480 nm to the east of the 74W/75W tropical wave. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows broad cyclonic wind flow from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ northward between 30W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N to 26N between 40W and 50W. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N northward from 50W eastward; and from 07N to 13N between 10W and 30W. Mostly moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Some exceptions are for spotty areas of slight seas, that are mostly from 50W westward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Strong to near gale-force westerly winds are from 12N to 14N between 24W and 27W. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are elsewhere from the monsoon trough northward from 34W eastward; from 20N northward between 34W and 45W; from the ITCZ northward between 45W and 60W; and from 30N southward between 60W and 73W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 27N southward from 73W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, elsewhere from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ northward. Mostly moderate or slower winds are from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward. One exception is for fresh SE winds that are from 07N54W 03N49W 01N44W 03N40W, to the Equator along 32W, and southward. A stationary front extends from near 31N78W southwestward to NE Florida. The front will linger in this area through Fri and dissipate by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary through Fri, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Meanwhile, strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola in the afternoon and evening Friday. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through the next few days. $$ mt/al